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The One
Stock Ben Bernanke Told Me to Buy
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Published: November 10, 2010
Want to know how much power the Federal
Reserve holds?
Late Tuesday,
the Fed announced it would spend $600 billion on a program
of buying Treasury bonds. That's in addition to what it will
also spend by reinvesting the proceeds of other bonds it had
purchased already.
On Wednesday, the S&P soared nearly +2%, creating about $220
billion in market cap in a single day.
I can't say it was unexpected.
You see, every year for my
StreetAuthority Market Advisor readers, I put together
two lists. First comes a list of my predictions for the coming
year. Next is a list of my top 10 stocks for the year.
About a week before the Fed's announcement, I sent my
predictions for 2011 to my subscribers. Prediction No. 9 called
for this next round of quantitative easing, or as it's more
elegantly called, QE2. But that was only part of the prediction.
Now that the first half came true, I also predicted exactly
where I want to invest based on the news... and it's looking
good, too.
Bernanke is between a rock and a hard place. He's trying to get
the Fed to steer a course between
inflation and
deflation.
When deflation rules, you want to be holding utilities, bonds,
and other assets that generate fixed income. But if inflation
takes control, you'll want to run from them.
A few months back, I hammered out my argument for why inflation
looks to be the ultimate victor. If there were ever a recipe to
cook up uncontrolled price hikes, we've been stirring together
the right ingredients.
The government has kept interest rates locked at zero since
December 2008 and ran the deficit to alarming levels -- it's up
another $3 trillion in the past two years.
Now Bernanke and the Federal Reserve intend to take even
stronger action.
We're nearly out of monetary ammunition. But the Fed can always
print more money and then use it to purchase long-term
Treasuries. The goal is to inject cash into the system, lower
borrowing costs and stimulate bank loans and other economic
activity.
Sure, the additional liquidity might provide some temporary
economic support. But running the printing presses will also
devalue the dollar. And I'm afraid the resulting inflation
will push bond yields and borrowing costs higher -- countering
the policy's very objective.
Modest inflation is surely preferable to deflation. But the
pendulum could easily swing too far in the other direction.
I can already see this in the spreads between 30-year Treasury
bonds and comparable Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
(Treasuries that adjust for inflation rates), which have widened
this month.
So if the Fed has signed off on creating inflation, then Ben
Bernanke has essentially told me where to invest.
Action to Take--> This was
already an ideal environment for commodities. Soybean and wheat
futures have surged. Aluminum and nickel are at multi-month
highs. Copper is within striking distance of an all-time high.
And precious metals have streaked higher and higher.
I'm confident this intervention will make the commodities
markets fertile ground again in 2011. That's why I own shares of
Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) in my
Market Advisor portfolio (to be fair, I have owned them
since late 2009).
The precious/semi-precious metals are prime inflation hedges. In
fact, shares of Silver Wheaton were up +14.6% this past week
alone.
Thanks Mr. Bernanke.
-- Nathan Slaughter
Editor
StreetAuthority Market Advisor, The ETF
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