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Published: November 11, 2010
Mention "emerging
markets" to the average investor on the street and chances are,
you'll get a flurry of responses that include Brazil, Russia,
India, or China - the BRIC nations.
That's why we at Investment U like to steer off the
beaten path and focus on the fast-growing countries that aren't
receiving as much attention. For example, my colleague, Carl
Delfeld, has profiled Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia
recently.
For the most part, however, there's a perception that it's "BRIC
or bust" when it comes to emerging markets.
But the truth is, emerging
market investing has come such a long way in a short period of
time that there is now ample information and opportunity for
even novice investors to build positions outside of American
stocks or the U.S. dollar. For example, all the countries above
have ADRs, which makes them easy to trade.
But where are the other emerging market opportunities - the ones
that the masses haven't yet discovered, or whose stocks aren't
yet listed as ADRs?
Let's find out, as they may well represent the most lucrative
opportunities going forward...
Get in on the Ground Floor of "Pre-Emerging" Markets
These "pre-emerging markets" (as I like to call them) are split
into two basic groups - Asian and non-Asian.
And with much attention already focused on the Asian region,
it's the non-Asian area that's garnering the most interest - and
the best opportunities. Specifically, in Africa (excluding South
Africa, which is already a tradable market).
And it's no surprise that the African companies gaining the most
attention are ones tied to commodities... and China. The Chinese
have been busy buying up or investing in African assets for more
than a decade now. And recently, they've stepped up their buying
in the resource sector, as they trade in their depreciating U.S.
dollars for hard materials.
But it's not just commodities. Africa is also seeing growth in
other sectors such as industry, banking and transportation.
So the question is: How do you play this growth?
Well, it's a bit trickier than other emerging markets because
unlike China, Africa isn't a homogenous country with a single
government. While it's home to one billion people, there are
more different and distinct populous groups on the African
continent than on any other.
So it's not going to burst onto the investment scene with the
same speed and power as China has. Rather, African growth will
come from countries that are able to capitalize on their
resource-based economies and trade with major economic powers
like China. And opportunities will come from the companies that
have mining interests there, or through conglomerates. If you're
interested in gaining exposure to this pre-emerging market,
consider the following ETFs:
-
Market Vectors Africa ETF (NYSE: AFK)
- Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE: EGPT)
- iShares MCSI South Africa Index (NYSE: EZA)
But
what about the Asian opportunities?
Are China and India Overplayed?
Having tracked India and China extensively over the past 15-20
years, some people ask me if the Asian investment story is now
overplayed.
After all, there's so much focus on these two nations in
particular that many investors consider them to be the most
viable places to invest.
But that couldn't be further from the truth.
Yes, it's easy to invest in China and India today through ADRs -
whether they're direct investments or if you buy them through
mutual funds.
But the hyper growth over the next decade may come from other
Asian countries that many investors haven't even considered.
Countries that have a high correlation to the two Asian
powerhouses and which will benefit from the growth in Asia.
As the outsiders, they get the investment "crumbs" - but in the
emerging market lifecycle, you can quickly go from an unknown
and impossible pre-emerging market with just a few local
companies, to a full-blown emerging market with dozen of ADRs.
And as the Asian region develops, those crumbs are becoming
increasingly valuable.
And the pre-emerging Asian market opportunities are...?
Pre-Emerging Markets: Tracking the Tiger Cubs Across Asia
I've shortlisted four countries that I think are well-poised to
challenge the status quo from China and India:
- Vietnam
-
Cambodia
- Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh
Vietnam and Cambodia in
particular are in position to undercut the production costs that
are now escalating in China. In other words, China may have to
subcontract to them in order to compete.
And Sri Lanka has the obvious advantage of being close to India
and the rest of Southeast Asia.
-- Karim Rahemtulla
Expert
Investment U
Note: This article originally appeared on
Investment U |