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Published: November 12, 2010
"So, Lou... are you worried about buying small-cap stocks now,
given the market's huge run-up?"
This was the question that Frank Curzio put to me, as I was
being interviewed on S&A Radio last week.
My answer: I'm always cautious about buying into a rally... but
at the same time, opportunities always exist.
The question is: How do you find the best of the bunch?
Here are my three "secrets" to finding winning small-cap stocks
in this market...
Small Cap Secret #1: Stick to the Technology Sector
The reason I recommend sticking to the technology sector is
two-fold...
Momentum is a powerful market force. We should use it to our
advantage, instead of trying to fight it. And the technology
sector stands out as one of the market's best performers lately.
For example, since the start of the fourth quarter, the average
technology stock is up about 10%, according to Standard &
Poor's. Only energy stocks (up about 11%) are faring better.
More important than momentum, though, is the fact that
technology companies represent the Olympic athletes of the
investment world. They entered the recession in peak financial
shape with barely any debt and a surplus of cash.
By contrast, financial stocks (banks, real estate investment
trusts, etc.) represent the sickly hospital patients of the
investment world. They entered the recession on a gurney and
headed straight into the emergency room, bloated with too much
debt and balance sheets full of toxic assets.
Put simply, technology companies were the best equipped to
handle the economic downturn. In turn, they were destined to
emerge the strongest. And that's precisely what's happening...
Tech Companies Splash the Cash
According to the latest tally, the top 25 technology companies
are sitting on $486 billion in cash. And they're putting it to
work, too.
In the third quarter, the number of mergers and acquisitions in
the technology sector jumped by 43%. This level of dealmaking
proves that technology companies are clearly focused on growth.
And that's crucial for investors because growth ultimately
increases earnings and share prices.
Meanwhile, many other companies are still cash-poor and
struggling to survive. So when it comes to stacking the odds in
our favor, bet on the athlete, not the infirmed.
Small Cap Secret #2: Stick to "Forever-Growth" Trends
Just because technology stocks boast solid momentum and
financial strength doesn't mean that we should ignore the bigger
macroeconomic picture.
As I explained in the summer, the chance of a double-dip
recession in the United States is slim. But the fact remains -
the current economic landscape hardly engenders optimism. Heck,
Jeremy Grantham thinks the recovery will be so anemic that we're
headed for "seven lean years" of equity returns.
I don't agree with such a bearish view. Nevertheless, I do want
to guard against any short- to intermediate-term economic
hiccups. And the easiest way to do that is to focus on
forever-growth trends. In other words, trends destined to
continue, no matter what happens in the world.
Do such trends exist? Absolutely. Just look at the mobile phone
you probably have within arm's reach at this very moment.
It's become a truly indispensable part of everyday life. If you
have any doubt, try turning your phone off for a solid week. I
guarantee you can't do it. That's because we can now use our
phones for texting, e-mailing, surfing the Internet, watching
videos, streaming music, getting directions, "tweeting," sharing
photos and wiring money. And more functions and applications are
being added almost daily.
So much so, in fact, that Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) estimates
that global mobile data traffic will be 39 times higher than
current usage by 2014. Before long, our mobile networks will
process the data equivalent of all the words ever spoken by
human beings... every month!
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Add it all up, and no matter what happens in the world or with
the economy, you can rest assured that we won't stop using our
mobile phones. For obvious reasons, investing in forever-growth
trends like this makes total sense.
Small Cap Secret #3: Stick to Stocks That Wall Street Doesn't
Follow
The trick to profiting from such trends and finding the best
stocks with the most upside potential is easy.
Just stick to small-cap stocks that have little Wall Street
analyst coverage. This is the only area of the market where
individual investors like us still hold the advantage.
Why? Because big institutions can't buy such small stocks. They
control too much money and it would unfairly impact prices. Even
Warren Buffett acknowledges this reality. He said he could earn
50% annual returns each and every year if he only had $1
million to invest, because it would give him free rein in the
market.
In the end, Wall Street has to wait until the most compelling
small caps become mid caps or even large caps in order to
profit. So they don't spend much (if any) time researching such
opportunities.
But we have no limitations. And if we're willing to get our
hands dirty, we can dig up these companies early and capitalize
on the growth immediately.
Exploiting such an advantage almost always translates into
bigger profits. Or as famous mutual fund manager, Peter Lynch,
said: "If you find a stock with little or no institutional
ownership, you've found a potential winner. Find a company that
no analyst would admit to knowing about, and you've got a double
winner."
-- Louis Basenese
Small Cap Expert
Investment U
Note: This article originally appeared on
Investment U |