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Published: November 15, 2010
Austrian economist
Joseph Schumpeter first introduced the world to the concept of
"creative destruction" by which, in his own words, sets forth a
"fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine
in motion [and] comes from the new consumers, goods, the new
methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the
new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise
creates."
In other words, just like in nature, business models and
companies evolve over time. And if they don't, they eventually
give way to new technologies or rivals or die out all together.
Andy Obermueller, editor of the
Game-Changing Stocks newsletter, is always on the hunt
for firms that are already making shareholders significant
profits for their successful, disrupting technologies. So I
thought I would look into some areas I thought would be
game-changers in the coming years myself and see if there was a
potential way for investors to profit.
With that, here are five industries that I think could see
significant disruption in the years ahead -- and the players
that could end up toppling the incumbent giants.
1. Cloud Computing
Incumbents: Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Adobe (Nasdaq:
ADBE), Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL)
Potential Winners: Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Google
(Nasdaq: GOOG), Intuit (Nasdaq: INTU), Microsoft
The current software
business model consists of buying a copy of a software
program and copying it to your computer. This leaves the
maintenance tasks and updates to the computer user or corporate
IT department. But software as a service, or SaaS for short,
consists of using the Internet to access a program for a fee and
leaves the maintenance and updating to the provider of the
software.
This has major potential
implications for those that currently benefit from the current
business model. For the leaders, it is highly lucrative, as it
has scale advantages -- design the software once and sell it to
a basically unlimited number of users. The new model could shift
the advantage to those who fully embrace SaaS instead of
fighting it to try and keep the current model intact. Amazon is
a potential winner for providing servers to run all the
software.
The music industry is a perfect example of fighting the
migration of music to online servers and digital subscription
services. Pure software providers, such as those listed above
could benefit. Traditional providers could topple, but could
also survive if they embrace the way the industry is shifting.
2. Voice Over Internet Protocol
Incumbents: AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon (NYSE: VZ),
Sprint (NYSE: S)
Potential Winners: Google, Vonage (NYSE: VG), Skype.
Voice Over Internet Protocol, or VoIP for short, is simply the
use of the Internet to transmit traditional voice telephone
calls. It is in pretty wide use already, but if firms like
Google have their way, they will use it to put traditional phone
companies out of business.
If VoIP really takes off, it would make the existing fixed line
networks that AT&T and Verizon have spent billions building and
maintaining for more than a hundred years obsolete. Google
recently acquired Swedish firm Global IP Solutions to beef up
its VoIP capabilities and has supposedly acquired a firm with
cutting-edge technologies in the space.
Vonage is a pure play in the space and has struggled to prove
that customers are willing to pay for VoIP, but it is quite
clear that the incumbents would be toppled if a low-cost or free
option were made available. This threatens every incumbent
telecom provider out there and could benefit firms including
Skype, which recently announced plans to go public and could
benefit investors if it can create an economically-viable VoIP
business model.
3. eReaders
Incumbents: Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group
(NYSE: BGP)
Potential Winners: Amazon, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Barnes &
Noble
eReaders, including Apple's iPad, Amazon's Kindle, and even
Barnes & Noble's Nook, are rapidly stealing
market share from printed books. The iPad is an early
leader, whose success is largely already priced into Apple's
share price. Amazon's offering is a small part of its strategy
to dominate online sales, but could represent another key growth
avenue to its operations.
The main potential play for investors is if the advent of
digital books completely destroys the traditional book
retailers. Barnes & Noble is somewhat hedging its bets with the
Nook, but still relies heavily on its bricks-and-mortar book
stores. Borders is at a clear disadvantage to B&N and could
easily meet its demise with the onslaught of eReader
competition.
4. Mobile Transaction Services
Incumbents: MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Visa (NYE: V),
Global Payments (NYSE: GPN)
Potential Winners: eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), LM Ericsson
(Nasdaq: ERIC)
At some point in the future it will be possible to make payments
and transfer money simply from your mobile phone. Of course,
this is already possible on the web thanks to eBay's PayPal
service. Certain features do exist on cell phones, but are
limited and almost non-existent when transacting between two
individuals.
Japan is a leading region for this type of technology and is
offered by global telecom firm LM Ericsson. eBay is another
clear leader that could benefit as it provides the technology
over mobile phone networks. Leading payment processors including
MasterCard and Visa are obvious beneficiaries, though as
incumbent leaders, they could be toppled by more nimble
competitors.
5. Waste-to-Entergy (WtE)
Incumbents: Waste Management (NYSE: WM), Republic
Services (NYSE: RSG)
Potential Winners: Covanta (NYSE: CVA), Waste Management
I won't spend too much time covering the waste-to-energy
industry, as I did more thoroughly in a previous article. But
WtE has the potential to permanently alter the business models
of traditional waste management firms such as Waste Management
and Republic Services. The ability to literally turn garbage
into energy is fascinating, and Covanta is a pure play in the
space and a global provider of WtE facilities.
As I detailed in the previous article, Waste Management already
has ambitions in the space. If it embraces this industry
transformation, the company could grow into a global player in
WtE, given its clear advantage of having a huge supply of waste
to transform into energy.
Action to Take --->
As you may have noticed, many incumbents are also potential
beneficiaries as long as they don't let creative destruction
completely destroy their business models. In my mind, cloud
computing and mobile transaction services have the greatest
likelihood to be the most destructive to the status quo.
In terms of individual firms, Google, Amazon, and Apple are
among the biggest disrupters, have already toppled larger
rivals, and have healthy appetites for additional creative
destruction going forward. But you may also want to look into
some of the lesser-known disruptors on this list, such as Vonage
or Covanta, and also be on the lookout for a Skype
IPO in the near future.
-- Ryan Fuhrmann
Contributor
StreetAuthority
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