|
Published: November 22, 2010
In When it comes to
investing in emerging markets, Brazil is often mentioned as one
of the most appealing countries. This is for good reason -- its
population of more than 200 million represents one of the
world's largest markets. Better yet, years of economic growth
under the rule of president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have
brought an estimated 20 million citizens out of poverty and
millions more into a middle class.
Economic growth is driving an emerging class of consumers that
buy goods and open bank accounts. Brazil is also rich in natural
resources and many of its companies have grown into global
leadership positions as they export oil and precious metals to
other fast-growing emerging markets.
Given these themes, here are three stocks that offer a
compelling mixture of operational savvy and reasonable
valuations for investors to profit.
1. Petrobras (NYSE: PBR)
Business: Integrated Energy Giant
Energy behemoth Petrobras is arguably Brazil's preeminent blue
chip company. Petrobras is effectively controlled by the
government, as it is the largest shareholder. This relationship
has provided Petrobras with an essentially limitless capital
capacity that allows it to fund oil exploration activities and
the construction of large oil production and refinery
facilities. Its existing four-year plan calls for almost $175
billion in infrastructure investment.
Petrobras has an ambition to grow into one of the top five
integrated oil companies in the world. It already produces
nearly two million barrels per day and boasts more than 11
billion barrels of reserves after making some of the largest
finds in the world off the Brazilian coast. The government has
also granted the company exploration rights in regions that
could have billions more in reserves.
An investment in Petrobras looks compelling right now. Global
uncertainty and volatile oil prices have pushed the shares
toward their lows for the year. At current levels, the forward
price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only about eight and is well
below the low double-digit levels of the past couple years. This
is a very reasonable entry point for investors, given the
ambitious growth targets. It's also worth noting that Petrobras
is the largest firm in Brazil, and as such it drives much of the
value of Brazilian stock indexes. This makes it a must-own in
the country -- at the right price.
2. Vale S.A. (Nasdaq: VALE)
Business: Basic Metals Mining
Vale is another national champion and bills itself as the
second-largest mining firm and largest iron ore miner in the
world. Growth in emerging markets, which includes its Brazilian
home as well as rapidly-growing countries such as China, is the
main driver of Vale's fortunes and means extremely ample profit
opportunities.
Vale is one of the 30 largest public companies in the world. The
company operates primarily in Brazil but also has sizable
operations in Canada. It has long-life and low cost assets in
the ground that it exports across the globe -- 50% of sales stem
from Asia, while about 20% of the top line stems from Europe and
South America. International diversification helps stabilize
operations, though demand for its products does fluctuate with
global construction activity.
Shares of Vale are bumping up against their highs for the year
but still trade for a reasonable forward P/E below 11. The
current
dividend yield is respectable at 1.4%, but investors
should be interested in Vale's ability to grow along with
emerging markets for many years to come.
3. Banco Itau (NYSE: ITUB)
Business: Bank
The final pick is a play on domestic Brazilian demand. Banco
Itau, along with Banco Bradesco (NYSE: BBD), are the two largest
banks in Brazil. After years of dealing with hyperinflation in
the economy before the country found a path to stable growth,
Brazilian banks have developed some of the most sophisticated
technology systems on the planet. This coupled with a growing
consumer market for bank loans, checking accounts, and related
financial services activities makes the industry very compelling
overall.
Headquartered in Sao Paulo, Banco Itau provides commercial and
corporate banking services to individuals and businesses
throughout Brazil. Recent returns on equity (ROE), an important
measure of banking efficiency and profitability, have been
stellar at around 20%. This qualifies it as one of the country's
most profitable banks. Size matters in banking as well, and this
favors Banco Itau, as it can transact business at lower price
points to keep earnings coming in.
Again, Banco Itau's forward P/E is reasonable at below 14. This
may be higher than U.S.-based investors may be accustomed to
paying for banks, but they don't have to worry about things like
the U.S. housing bust in Brazil. Banco Itau is also growing
rapidly -- during the past three years sales have grown more
than +30% annually, while earnings have grown nearly +20% in
each of these years. This growth is worth paying up for,
especially if it continues at a similar pace.
Action to Take ---> Emerging markets are safest when focusing on
the largest players in the space. As with Petrobras, Vale and
Banco Itau, size has its advantages. In the first two cases, the
firms have been able to leverage dominant Brazilian positions
into global leadership roles in their respective industries.
Banco Itau will continue to benefit from domestic growth as more
Brazilians are lifted up out of poverty and into the middle
class. Shares of any of these companies should be considered a
compelling buy.
-- Ryan Fuhrmann
Contributor
StreetAuthority
P.S. Any analyst can tell you they like a stock. But how
many are willing to put their money where their mouth is?
StreetAuthority Market Advisor is so confident in Nathan
Slaughter's picks that we gave him $100,000 in cash to put into
his recommendations. Learn how you can join in and
profit along
with him.
|