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Monday, June 30, 2008

Volume 2, Issue #22

Published weekly, the TopStockAnalysts Digest is loaded with stock picks, trading ideas, market commentary, and educational guidance designed to help you become a better investor. To ensure uninterrupted delivery of this newsletter, please follow these simple instructions.

Table of Contents

1.  Market Update
2.  Latin American Discovery Fund (LDF)
3.  Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF)
4.  Additional Investing Ideas
5.  Investor Trivia -- The +166% Energy Spike
6.  Featured Topic -- Beat the New Tax Laws with High-Yielding MLPs
7.  Free Investing Resources

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Today's Top Stock Picks

This Red-Hot Fund Throws Off +53% Annualized Gains
Latin American economies have been driving in high gear, and this fund taps into some of the fastest-growing companies in the region.
Read More. . .


Capturing +1,161% Total Returns Out of Sand
This oil sands trust has rocketed with the price of oil, providing investors with +65% annualized gains over the over the last five years. Read More. . .

 

Do you think the market is headed for a fall?

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Market Update

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Back in mid-March, the stunning collapse of Bear Stearns sent the Dow tumbling to a low of 11,650. The market then enjoyed a brief rally, taking it back above 13,000, but it quickly ran out of steam. Now, the Dow has surrendered over 1,500 points and is once again trading below 11,700 -- well below.

Barring a dramatic reversal, the benchmark is on track for its weakest monthly showing in over six years and its worst June performance since John F. Kennedy was president. Across the pond, European bourses haven't offered any escape, closing at levels last seen in October 2005.

It's not too hard to find a catalyst for the selling pressure. Outside of a slight upward revision in last quarter's GDP growth (from +0.9% to +1.0%), there has been little uplifting news on either the economic or corporate front.

Threats from Libya to cut oil production have pushed crude prices to record levels above $140 per barrel, and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) sent the market into a dizzying tailspin after issuing gloomy comments about the financial sector. The dour remarks rubbed salt in an open wound, sending Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) spiraling to a new 7-year low and Citigroup (NYSE: C) to a 10-year low. Still, both have fared better than auto maker General Motors (NYSE: GM), which is now changing hands for the same price it was over half a century ago.

All in all, it was a bad week in what has been a terrible month for investors.

The last time the major averages hit bottom in March, they all rocketed sharply higher the very next day after the Fed took decisive action and slashed interest rates by 3/4 of a point. But with inflation now ratcheting higher, the Fed's hands are tied. On Wednesday, Ben Bernanke's team decided for the first time in months to keep rates on hold -- and one dissenting board member even cast a vote in favor of a rate hike. Unless the inflationary pressures of oil moderate, it could be a long summer for investors -- but we're here to show you how to profit anyway.

And while it has been a tough stretch, those with a hefty stake in oil might be wondering what all the fuss is about. As you might expect, the relentless run-up in crude prices has pushed the shares of many oil producers to new heights. That includes Canadian Oil Sands Trust (OTC: COSWF, $52.85), which has almost doubled since last summer and still offers a hefty yield of nearly 8%. And below, High-Yield Investing editor Carla Pasternak will give you the complete rundown on this energy trust.

But first, I will share some compelling stats about the Latin American Discovery Fund (NYSE: LDF, $26.65), like the fact it has run past virtually every other fund in the region since 2003 and produced five straight years of hefty double-digit gains. After that advance, it may be due for a temporary breather -- but I don't think this bull marathon is over just yet.

Good Investing!


-- Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

 

How to use ETFs to Capture Dividend Yields of up to 21.5%

148 different ETFs are dishing out huge dividend yields of more than 10%.

This free report will reveal how to use ETFs to capture double-digit dividend yields -- of up to a staggeringly high 21.5%!

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This Red-Hot Fund Throws Off +53% Annualized Gains

by Nathan Slaughter, Editor -- The ETF Authority

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While India and China have been the big headline-makers over the past few years, stocks in many countries throughout Central and South America have also been salting away impressive gains.

Thanks in part to strong global demand for steel, Brazilian iron ore producer Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) has dug up gains of +465% over the past three years. Meanwhile, Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), which controls 95% of Brazil's oil production, has racked up a massive return of +550%.

And the gains haven't been limited to the commodity boom either. Mexican wireless provider America Movil (NYSE: AMX), Colombian financial giant BanColombia (NYSE: CIB) and many others have also enjoyed healthy triple-digit gains.

And all of these companies are well represented in the Latin American Discovery Fund's (NYSE: LDF, $26.65) $300 million portfolio. But that's not all you'll have access to.

While the firms above are all ADRs that can conveniently be picked up on the New York Stock Exchange, LDF also has a direct stake in companies like Colombian food retailer Almacenes Exito and Brazilian power producer Cia Energetica de Sao Paulo -- which only trade on foreign exchanges and would otherwise be difficult for U.S. investors to tap into.

Not surprisingly, given the rich natural resources of Latin America, LDF is heavily weighted in the metals/mining and oil/gas sectors, representing a combined weighting of 40%. However, shareholders will also have a stake in banking, telecom, software, media, consumer staples and other industries. Notably, the fund was also sitting on about $38 million (about 15% of the portfolio) in money market assets at year-end -- cash that can be quickly deployed to take advantage of falling prices.

Having the flexibility to hold cash during an uncertain market is just one of the benefits of this actively managed fund. Not only can its management team cherry-pick whatever stocks in the region they see fit, but they can also overweight, underweight or even avoid certain countries depending on market conditions.

Commentary from the latest annual report suggests the portfolio has little exposure to Chile, where stock valuations are becoming stretched and interest rates are on the rise. By contrast, management is making a bold bet on Brazil, arguably the region's most explosive country, and on Mexico -- which is benefiting from lowered inflation, fiscal reform, and the lowest consumer debt levels in all of Latin America.

Of course, having the flexibility to deviate from traditional benchmarks only helps when managers can consistently make the right calls. Fortunately, they have done exactly that for more than a decade. In fact, LDF has scored in the top 1% of all Latin American equity funds over the past one, three, five, and ten-year periods.

Since 2003 alone, the fund has turned in annualized gains of better than +53%, outpacing the MSCI EM Latin America Index by more than eight percentage points per year -- and turning a $10,000 investment into approximately $83,000.

The downside to all those winning trades is that the fund typically distributes hefty capital gains payments each December and isn't particularly tax efficient -- but even on an after-tax basis, shareholder have had reason to smile. Also on the plus side, LDF trades at an attractive discount of -7.5% to NAV.

All things considered, LDF is a great way to participate in the continued prosperity of Latin America, which could well see its sixth-straight year of double-digit gains in 2008, as measured by the MSCI EM Latin America Index. Companies throughout the region are seeing improved balance sheets, expanding profit margins and stronger cash flow generation.

While a pullback in commodity prices remains a risk, investors willing to withstand the volatility of an emerging-markets fund should continue to be rewarded here.
 

 

ETFs Focusing on Foreign Markets are Delivering Gains
as High as +838.2% -- Free Report

We're putting the finishing touches on a special report that reveals how to use ETFs to generate triple-digit gains in some of today's most promising foreign markets -- including ETFs focusing on faraway places like Brazil that are delivering gains as high as +838.2%.

Learn how to use ETFs to deliver triple-digit gains

 

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Capturing +1,161% Total Returns Out of Sand

by Carla Pasternak, Editor -- High-Yield Investing

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Canadian Oil Sands Trust (OTC: COSWF, $52.85) is the dominant player among several in the Alberta Syncrude Project. This project mines tar sands or "bitumen" and then refines this substance into light, sweet crude oil. The trust is by far the largest member of the consortium, with a 36.74% stake -- nearly +50% larger than the next biggest player.

As crude oil prices have moved steadily higher, Canadian Oil Sands' distributions have also dramatically increased. In the first quarter of 2007, the trust paid $0.40 Canadian per unit. After raising the distribution to $0.75 a unit late in 2007, the trust increased it again in early 2008 to $1.00 per unit. That increase creates a forward distribution of $4.00 per unit, or a yield of almost 8% at current prices ($4.00/$52.85).  But distributions are only part of the equation as the unit price has also appreciated +914% in the last five years -- contributing to Canadian Oil Sands' total returns of +1,161% over that same time period.

The trust's payouts are based on rapidly increasing cash flow from operations. In the first quarter of 2008, this amount was $0.92 a unit, more than double the $0.42 a unit generated in the same period in 2007. The increase is not surprising when you consider that Canadian Oil Sands received an average of $58.23 for benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil last year. This amount zoomed to $97.82 in the first quarter of this year

At current production levels, Canadian Oil Sands' interests in an estimated 4.7 billion barrels reserves are estimated to last about 35 years. The trust notes, however, that the development of currently held leases should allow it to operate beyond 2050.

For 2008, the trust anticipates its operating cash flow will be $4.01 a unit. This forecast is based on $100 a barrel oil prices and the Canadian dollar at parity with the U.S. At $120 oil, a price below current levels, the company anticipates $5.01 a unit in operating cash flow, about +25% above current forecasts.

If that scenario unfolded, in addition to a possible distribution increase, the share price of Canadian Oil Sands would likely rise. The shares are already up more than +30% for the year.

Investors should be aware there are risks in the story. If oil prices do average $100 and operating cash flow is $4.01 per unit, the trust will be paying out virtually 100% of its cash flow. Furthermore, if oil drops, an average price of $80 a barrel could affect distributions.

A sharp rise in the Canadian dollar, now trading about even with the U.S. dollar, could also negatively impact results. Although a strong Canadian dollar increases the value of the company's dividends for a U.S. investors, it can decrease the company's operating results.

Finally, as with most Canadian income trusts, the big distribution will likely shrink when the company is taxed as an ordinary corporation starting January 1, 2011. Depending on oil prices, however, the unit price could go through the roof and more than make up for the lower payouts. Meanwhile, you still have a few years to enjoy both sources of returns.

Canadian Oil Sands Trust is suitable for investors willing to risk commodity price volatility in return for a handsome yield and strong upside potential.

 
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Additional Investing Ideas

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The Stable Preferred Share Fund Yielding 7.1%
Given the turmoil in the financial sector, preferred stock yields have taken off. And income investors that own this exchange-traded fund can lock in those higher yields

This Railroad Owns Key Routes in Major Coal and Agricultural Markets
BNI is well-placed to handle surging commodity demand in coming years. And as older contracts expire, it has significant scope to raise prices.

This Hotelier Offers a Dependable 11.3% Yield
Troubled in the past by various difficulties, this company now offers a juicy 10%-plus yield.
Visit this link to read additional articles from today's leading market experts!
 
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Investor Trivia -- The +166% Energy Spike

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Energy prices have been on the upswing for some time now. But over the last year, which energy commodity has seen the sharpest increase, spiking +166%?

A.) Ethanol
B.) Crude oil
C.) Coal
D.) Natural gas
E.) Electricity

(Please click on one the links above. After you make your choice, we'll show you the correct answer on our web site.)

 
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Featured Topic -- Beating the New Tax Laws with High-Yielding MLPs

 

Americans are benefiting from some of the lowest dividend and capital gains tax rates in the nation's history. But that is scheduled to change -- and investors should be planning now for what is likely to happen in 2011. The good news is that there are a number of tax-savvy investment choices for protecting your hard-earned income.       

A Little Background
On May 28, 2003, President Bush signed into law the "Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act." One provision of this law was to reduce the tax rates on certain dividends from as high as 38.6% down to 15%.

Another was to reduce the top tax rate on long-term capital gains (assets held more than one year) from 20% down to 15% as well. For taxpayers in a 15% or lower income tax bracket, the dividend tax rate was just 5% and, along with the capital gains tax, moved to 0% in 2008.

These tax rate cuts were slated to expire on December 31, 2008, but in May 2006, Congress voted to extend them by two more years. As a result, the provisions are now set to expire after December 31, 2010. Unless Congress renews or changes them, dividends will again be taxable as ordinary income, now up to 35%. Capital gains will also be taxable at the top rate of 20%.

What Should be Your Strategy Going Into 2010?
With potentially only two-and-a-half more years of reduced taxes, now is a good time to start planning on a tax-savings strategy beyond 2010. . .


Important Note:  Because this article is fairly extensive, we could not include it in its entirety in today's newsletter. You can find the remainder of this article on our web site. Please visit this link to continue reading this article.

  
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Good investing in the coming weeks!



Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest



Paul Tracy
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

TopStockAnalysts
http://www.TopStockAnalysts.com
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