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Monday, August 11, 2008

Volume 2, Issue #28

Published weekly, the TopStockAnalysts Digest is loaded with stock picks, trading ideas, market commentary, and educational guidance designed to help you become a better investor. To ensure uninterrupted delivery of this newsletter, please follow these simple instructions.

Table of Contents

1.  Market Update
2.  Russia
3.  Chipotle (CMG)
4.  Additional Investing Ideas
5.  Investor Trivia -- The Lighter Side of Financials
6.  Featured Topic -- A New Frontier for Gains
7.  Free Investing Resources

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Today's Top Stock Picks

High Yield Strategy: The Billionaire Watch
To find some of the world's highest yields, just follow the money -- or in this case, the billionaires. Read More. . .

Another Chance to Pick Up this Growing, High-Quality Restaurant Chain
It's hard to decide which is better -- Chipotle's (CMG) food or a chance to pick up this stock at a bargain. Read More. . .

 

The Motley Fool's Top Stocks

David and Tom Gardner launched Motley Fool Stock Advisor in April 2002 -- in the grips of a bear market. Of the picks made during that first year:

* 23 of 24 are in positive territory
* Nine have at least TRIPLED in value
* Two are up more than 800%, turning every $10k invested into at least $90,000

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Market Update

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With tumbling crude prices deflecting lingering economic concerns, the major averages have just put together one of their strongest weekly showings in months.

However, uneven trading early on gave little hint of that. In fact, traders were greeted on Monday with disconcerting news from the Commerce Department that consumer spending rose just +0.6% in June, respectable, before considering that prices for goods and services jumped +0.8%. In other words, spending actually dipped -0.2% on an inflation-adjusted basis, even with the aid of tax rebates.

And lackluster July same-store sales tallies from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and other retailers suggest that the situation has not improved in recent weeks.

Fortunately, there was good news on other fronts. Factory orders are up, pending home sales showed a surprise uptick, and the critical service sector of the economy rebounded at a much brisker pace than expected last month. The key catalyst, though, has been the continued free fall in crude prices.

After peaking at near $150 per barrel, oil prices have retreated precipitously -- falling all the way back below $116 on Friday. There have been several factors behind the pullback: a strengthening dollar, a larger than expected build in crude stockpiles, even a benign path by tropical storm Edouard away from any major production facilities in the Gulf.

Whatever the reason, Wall Street has cheered the dramatic turnaround. Suddenly, market leadership has now flip-flopped, with consumer discretionary stocks racing forward and the energy sector in full retreat.

Thanks to a pair of hefty triple-digit gains, the Dow Industrials finished the week with a solid gain of more than 400 points (+3.6%), and tech stocks were even stronger.

Since climbing as high as $4.11 per gallon, average gas prices have slid more than -$0.25 nationwide. That's a lot of quarters going back into the pockets of everyday shoppers. That's welcome news for a host of consumer-oriented companies -- including casual diners like Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG, $73.58). And below, Half-Priced Stocks editor Nathan Slaughter explains why now may be the time for investors to take advantage of the happy hour prices for this undervalued company.

Also on tap for today, High-Yield International editor Nick Lanyi serves up an interesting demographic study of the world's most affluent. If you have aspirations of one day seeing your name alongside those of billionaires like Carlos Slim, then you might want to begin by following their lead and investing overseas.

Good Investing!


-- Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

 
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High Yield Strategy: The Billionaire Watch

by Nick Lanyi, Editor -- High-Yield International

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A billion dollars may not be what it used to be, but it's still a serious pile of cash. So why are more and more of the world's most eye-popping fortunes being made in foreign countries? Because that's where the growth is. 

Companies in these red-hot economies are not only trouncing their U.S. counterparts in terms of capital appreciation, they're also paying luxuriant yields and in strong currencies. You can add new life to your income stream with surprisingly little risk if you just keep your eyes on the world's billionaires. 

The U.S. all-star team used to lead the league. Now they're barely warming the bench.

Five years ago, nine of the top ten richest people in the world were U.S. citizens. Five were members of one family. Now, only Warren Buffett and Bill Gates are on the top-ten list, and just two other Yanks had vast enough fortunes to afford themselves a spot in the top 25.
 

The list of the world's richest folks is compiled by the editors of Forbes Magazine early each summer. Bill Gates had been at the top of the list for more than a decade. But this year he was finally dethroned by Buffett, his friend and bridge partner, as well as by Mexican telecom baron Carlos Slim, who snatched the No. 2 spot. Gates' $58 billion hoard now ranks third -- though that can hardly be considered a bad place to be.

In all, 31 Americans made the top 100.  But that's -26% lower than it was just five years ago. 

Did all our U.S. billionaires move away? What happened?

The short answer: The world woke up -- and got busy.

India and Russia have produced wealth at such a fast rate, and a few of their oligarchs have managed to grow their fortunes at such an astonishing clip that they're displacing even the most well-heeled Americans. To wit: Only one of the 100 wealthiest people hailed from India in 2003. Today 13 Indians are on that exclusive roster. The ranks of Russian billionaires, meanwhile, grew from three in 2003 to 19 today.

These international captains of industry reflect the dramatic growth playing out across the "developing" world. And the stock markets in Russia and India tell much of the story. 

The Russian MICEX index has skyrocketed +672% since the beginning of 2003. In India, the returns have been a more modest +471% -- or roughly +38.6% annualized since January 2003.  Here at home, the S&P 500 crept along at an +8% annualized rate.

This underscores an indisputable truth: U.S. equity markets are lagging. The S&P hasn't been the top-performer for 60 years. 

If you want to see your fortunes rise, then you should look at some of the great companies overseas and cast off some of your American equities in favor of these international up-and-comers in places like India, Russia, China, Peru and even Slovenia.  

These are not your father's emerging markets: These are, after all, the countries that have created enough wealth to relegate old-line U.S. dynasties like Walton, Mars, Pritzker and Newhouse to almost second-class status. 

It's true that as recently as a decade ago, the prospect of owning stock in any non-European foreign country would have seemed far too risky. But times have changed.

With the exception of our own dollar, currencies have stabilized.  Democratic reforms have cast tin-pot dictators onto the ash heap of history. Eastern European, South American, African and Far East markets have been opened to outside investment and have been stabilized by not only globalization but by the information revolution as well. These countries got with the program; all that's left is for you to join them.

In 2003, three Russians were on Forbes' list of 100 wealthiest people. They were worth a combined $18 billion, a teeny little 4% fraction of the $414 billion held by U.S. billionaires. This year, the now 18 Russians on the list are worth $267 billion, nearly half the U.S. billionaires' $573 trove and a 1,383% increase overall.   

Are there any good investment opportunities left in Russia?

Yes. Investors are absolutely basking in red-hot Russian economy: They're not only inking huge returns, they're protecting their portfolios from the weak dollar. And many of the Russian stocks pay fat dividends, so these investors are raking in rubles, too. 

In fact, I profiled a world-beating fund earlier this year in an issue of my premium newsletter. The fund invests half its assets in Russia and distributed $10.442 last year for a yield of 62% at current share prices!! It's benefiting from Russia's immense reserves of oil, natural gas, and other commodities, as well as its proximity to vital European and Asian markets.

Russia's most prominent corporate names -- Lukoil, Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel -- make up a quarter of this fund. And bear in mind that these three companies alone have added five names to the top 100 list of the world's wealthiest. Not one of these industrial barons was on the top 100 list five years ago: Today, they're worth a combined $78.6 billion.

Now I can't promise that all the investments in Russia have quite that lofty a yield, but the region is certainly fertile ground for income investors. You may not be able to become a billionaire -- that's a tall order. But you can make money from the same companies that are creating those megafortunes -- and without learning a new language or cultivating an affinity for vodka and zakuska. 

If you'd like to learn the name of this fund -- plus receive a steady stream of foreign stocks, preferreds, and other investing ideas with abnormally high dividend yields each and every month -- then I'd like to extend you a personal invitation to try my premium investing newsletter . . . High-Yield International.  Visit this link to learn more.

 

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Another Chance to Pick Up this Growing, High-Quality Restaurant Chain
by Nathan Slaughter -- Half-Priced Stocks

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From almost the day that Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG, $73.58) was spun-off from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), the company has been a fan favorite in the fast-casual dining segment. The stock hit the market around $45 per share in January 2006, and within two years had ascended to the dizzying height of $155 in a near-parabolic upward move.

But like many highfliers before it, the stock couldn't sustain that lofty valuation and fell back to Earth once investors realized they had gotten carried away. The gains evaporated just as quickly as they appeared, and today the shares are back trading in the lower $70s.

With valuations having cooled off noticeably, this spicy Mexican food purveyor is once again looking quite palatable for value investors.

For those that haven't had the opportunity to visit, Chipotle lies somewhere in between fast-food and casual dining. Patrons begin lining up at the door and then wait as their tacos, burritos and salads are prepared before them assembly-style using fresh ingredients.

In other words, these units offer the speed, convenience and pricing of a fast-food outlet, but the quality and ambience of a sit-down restaurant -- you won't find cilantro-lime rice and shredded beef with cumin, cloves and garlic just anywhere.

That rare combination has kept customers piling in even under these extraordinarily challenging conditions. While most rivals are struggling to tread water, Chipotle has posted a sizeable +8.5% gain in same-store sales so far this year and a +27% bump in both overall revenues and profits.

Nevertheless, with comps having grown at a torrid double-digit pace for more than a decade, investors have reacted harshly to signs of deceleration. Rising costs for things like cheese and guacamole have also become a concern.

Still, the company's ability to navigate this tough climate is impressive and bodes well for a time when consumers begin eating out more -- and rest assured that time will come. Plus, the Chipotle concept is still catching on around the country. In fact, management is planning to add as many as 140 new locations this year and deliver healthy +25% annual earnings growth for years to come.

For those that missed out on Chipotle the first time around, consider this sell-off a second chance.
 
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Additional Investing Ideas

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Hunting ELKS for a 10%-Plus Yield
These ELKS give you a double-digit yield, trade like a stock, and are protected by the share price of a high-flying biotech company.

This Auctioneer Has the Potential to Appreciate More Than +36%
Ritchie Brothers (RBA) is the largest company of its kind, with close to 80,000 registered buyers in 170 countries. RBA also has aggressive plans to expand further in its $100 billion a year industry.

Unlock the Riches of the Middle East
WisdomTree's fund gives U.S. investors new access to the rich dividends and rapidly rising markets of the Middle East
Visit this link to read additional articles from today's leading market experts!
 
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Investor Trivia -- The Lighter Side of Financials

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Financial stocks make up 50% or more of many equity-income fund portfolios. Which of these funds devotes less than 20% to the financial sector -- and still provides a hefty 15.2% yield to boot?

A.)  
Alpine Global Dividend (NYSE: AGD)
B.)  
Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return (KYE)
C.)  
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG)
D.)  
WisdomTree Europe Dividend (DEB)
E.)  
First Trust Value Line Dividend (FVD)

(Please click on one the links above. After you make your choice, we'll show you the correct answer on our web site.)

 
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Featured Topic -- A New Frontier For Gains

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Most investors have never even heard of Namibia, a country about half the size of Alaska located on the southwestern coast of Africa. Namibia has an arid climate and a population of just over 2 million, but it's also a nation of extraordinary natural resource wealth -- including uranium, lead and diamonds.

Investors might be surprised to hear that the tiny Namibian stock market is up more than +200% since the S&P 500 hit its October 11, 2007 high. That's impressive -- particularly when you consider the S&P 500 is down more than -15% since that date. Most European markets are also lower since that time, some down even more sharply than the U.S.

Of course, the Namibian market is tiny and obscure, but it's not alone -- there are plenty of smaller foreign stock markets that have handily outperformed the S&P 500 in recent years.

Located half a world away in Asia is Vietnam, nation with a population of 87 million and a per-capita gross domestic product of just $2,600. The communist government in Vietnam has been taking steps to open up the nation's economy and encourage foreign investment and trade. Now the economy is booming and so is the market. Despite a drop in the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh Stock Index over the past few months, it is still up close to +200% over the past five years. That's equivalent to an annualized gain of nearly +25%.

Important Note:  Because this article is fairly extensive, we could not include it in its entirety in today's newsletter. You can find the remainder of this article on our web site. Please visit this link to continue reading this article.

  
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Free Investing Resources

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"How To Win 80% of Your Trades or Better": Get this FREE 4-part email report from renowned options educator Don Fishback. You'll learn to put the ODDS in your favor like the pros. Visit this link.

Sign up for The Daily Reckoning today and receive your FREE, exclusive copy of 4 Undervalued Stocks Primed for Double-Digit Gains. In your free report, you'll have the names of FOUR lucrative stocks right at your fingertips. Sign up here.

 


Good investing in the coming weeks!



Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest



Paul Tracy
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

TopStockAnalysts
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