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Monday, August 18, 2008

Volume 2, Issue #29

Published weekly, the TopStockAnalysts Digest is loaded with stock picks, trading ideas, market commentary, and educational guidance designed to help you become a better investor. To ensure uninterrupted delivery of this newsletter, please follow these simple instructions.

Table of Contents

1.  Market Update
2.  Alpine Global Dividend (AGD)
3.  Market Vectors Africa (AFK)
4.  Additional Investing Ideas
5.  Investor Trivia -- It Pays to Stay Calm
6.  Featured Topic -- Companies Turning the Corner to Profitability
7.  Free Investing Resources

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Today's Top Stock Picks

With a 15.4% Yield, this Fund is a Dividend Magnet
Manger Jill Evans never lets a good dividend escape her grasp. But capturing dividends is just one of Alpine Global Dividend's (AGD)  many strengths. Read More. . .

Lions and Tigers and Growth
Fast-growing African stocks used to be harder to access than Mount Kilimanjaro. Now they're just an exchange-traded fund away. Read More. . .

 
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Market Update

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It may just be a coincidence, but as we enter the dog days of summer, the market finally appears to be heating up a little.

Though the Dow has given back a few points during the past week, it has bounced nicely since dipping below 11,000 in mid-July. Many individual sectors (notably technology) have traded higher in recent days and extended their August gains.

It was a fairly quiet week on the economic front, but there were a few noteworthy developments. The Commerce Department announced that retail sales were off -0.1% last month, weighed down by a sluggish auto sector. Prices at the consumer level, meanwhile, rose +0.8% and are now running at their fastest annual pace in more than 17 years.

On a positive note, the once-ailing dollar continues to recuperate, the latest injection of optimism coming with news that the nation's trade deficit narrowed -4% in July on record exports. Mounting evidence of an economic cool-down across the pond has also helped the greenback gain strength against the Euro and other currencies.

In fact, the U.S. Dollar Index has just climbed to its high water mark for the year, accelerating the decline in many dollar-denominated commodities -- which are now becoming more expensive for foreign buyers. Base metals like copper have retreated sharply, while gold has fallen from above $1,000 per ounce back below $800.

Of course, the bigger news is the continued freefall in oil, which is also being exacerbated by downbeat OPEC forecasts suggesting that moderating global economic growth is cutting into demand. Crude prices have fallen back to $110 per barrel over the past month in a dizzying decline that pushed retail gasoline prices lower for 25 consecutive days.

Nevertheless, while traders have cheered the prospect of resurgent consumer spending, they remain concerned with ongoing uncertainty in the financial sector. Tugged by those two opposing forces, the major averages finished the week mixed -- with the Nasdaq again showing leadership.
 

We have entered a period of swift turnarounds: crude oil prices are plunging, the dollar is suddenly rising, and everything that used to be working (precious metals, mining, energy and agriculture) is now broken as investors have recalibrated their outlook and rotated their assets accordingly.

So with formerly-sizzling stocks in China collapsing more than -50% on the year, what better place to seek refuge than in overlooked regions such as Nigeria and Morocco. Below, Market Advisor editor Paul Tracy has all the specs on Market Vectors Africa (NYSE: AFK, $37.94), one of the best ways to play these potentially explosive African markets.

After that, I explain why yield-hungry investors might want to set their sights on Alpine Global Dividend (NYSE: AGD, $13.21). The offbeat fund uses a variety of different strategies in its pursuit of income, and together they add up to a rich yield of 15% and a portfolio that has outpaced the S&P 500 by almost a 2-1 margin since inception.

Good Investing!


-- Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

 
Taiwan Offers China-Sized Growth Potential, Plus 21.4% Yields

As its relationship with China fortifies, Taiwan's already strong economic prospects will only get stronger, fueled by China's unstoppable growth engine. Income expert Nick Lanyi just identified a handful of great investments that are ready to profit from that strength -- and his favorite has an outstanding yield of 21.4%.

Learn more in the full story.

 
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With a 15.4% Yield, this Fund is a Dividend Magnet

by Nathan Slaughter, Editor -- The ETF Authority

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Launched by Alpine Funds two years ago, Alpine Global Dividend (NYSE: AGD, $13.21) has already made a name for itself among income investors.

Lead manager Jill Evans and her team begin with a rigorous top-down approach, meaning they evaluate the larger macroeconomic picture to identify trends and pinpoint the most promising industries. From there, they go on a company-by-company search to find the most attractive stocks in those groups, relying heavily on strong management, superior returns on capital and long-term growth potential.

Above all, the overriding goal is to generate maximum current income from dividend-paying stocks -- preferably those qualifying for favorable tax treatment.

Evans isn't afraid to search off the beaten path for dividends, and that is reflected in a portfolio composition that differs markedly from most in this category. Whereas many equity-income funds hold a 50% or greater slug of financial stocks, this fund devotes less than 20% to the financial sector -- diving instead into industrial, energy, telecom and consumer-oriented stocks.

It's also worth noting that the portfolio gravitates heavily toward higher-yielding markets like Sweden, Finland, Norway, Italy and the United Kingdom. Western Europe, which accounts for about 60% of the fund's $520 million in assets, carries an average yield of nearly 5.0% -- more than double the amount offered by U.S. firms.

In the end, however, the portfolio is the end result of a unique three-pronged attack.

First, there is the core mission of seeking out undervalued high-yield companies with identifiable turnaround catalysts. Next, management will also dabble in the occasional growth stock with the potential for both dividend hikes and significant capital appreciation.

For example, while Diamond Offshore Drilling (NYSE: DO) doesn't have a current yield that jumps off the page, the driller is producing copious cash flows and boosting its distributions. More importantly, the shares spiked +90% last year -- and AGD has it as one of its largest holdings.

Finally, the managers also employ a dividend capture strategy, which involves precise timing to rotate in and out of companies about to pay a dividend to "capture" more than the standard four quarterly payouts per year with the same investment dollars. Not long ago, Evans swooped in just in time to catch a 15% special dividend distribution from Italian life-insurance giant Unipol Gruppo before moving on to another high-yielder.

AGD shareholders are currently enjoying steady monthly payments of $0.17 per share, for a hefty yield of 15.4%. And don't be fooled by others; AGD is able to make those payments without the aid of leverage or options. The fund also distributed $1.47 per share in capital gains at the end of last year.

Very few funds tout rich yields in excess of 15%, and fewer still can make those payments without turning to leverage or other creative strategies. Of course, an ETF's yield is only as good as the portfolio behind it, and AGD's core holding of undervalued companies with clean balance sheets and visible growth catalysts is appealing.

It's a safe bet that Evans and her team have sprung into action to capitalize on the attractive valuations and higher yields this global sell-off has created, so I expect to see significantly stronger performance over the next year or two.

 

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Lions and Tigers and Growth

by Paul Tracy, Editor -- Market Advisor

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O.K. Technically speaking, there are no tigers in Africa. But there are many fast-growing companies that investors can now easily access with Market Vectors Africa ETF (NYSE: AFK, $37.94). Some of the markets AFK invests in, such as South Africa, are considered emerging markets rather than frontier markets. Nonetheless, AFK offers the most concentrated exposure of any fund to the frontier markets of Africa. And all of the markets in the fund certainly share the frontier characteristics of high economic growth and the potential for large returns.

AFK invests in the stocks of the Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index. These are all stocks of companies either based in Africa or that derive more than 50% of their revenues from Africa. Stocks from Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Morocco take the top weighting in the fund, making up close to three quarters of the portfolio.

Africa remains one of the world's poorest regions. According to Van Eck, the manager of AFK, the entire continent has 15% of the world's population but only accounts for 2% of global GDP. Nonetheless, the region is seeing major economic improvement. On average, sub-Saharan African grew at a near +7% pace in 2007, and growth has remained above +6% in each of the past three years.

Some of this improvement is due to exposure to energy and mineral commodity markets. Africa is among the world's top producers of gold, platinum, uranium and diamonds. In addition, some countries such as Nigeria and Angola are becoming important and fast-growing suppliers of crude oil. And money from natural resource exports is stimulating other sectors of the African economy..

There are other reasons for optimism, too. Corruption and social instability have been a problem in many African nations and remain a major issue for some countries in the region. However, many nations are making progress in this area. Botswana is a classic example.

This tiny nation of 1.8 million is a rich source of diamonds -- the government-owned diamond firm partners with foreign companies in developing resources. Those resource monies have, in turn, been spent on badly needed infrastructure and development projects. In addition, the government in Botswana has taken steps toward free-market reform, including lowering barriers to trade and a responsible fiscal policy.

Finally, foreign investment into Africa is booming. Taking into account direct investment by companies, investment funds and loans, private monies flowing into Africa topped $50 billion last year -- up from just over $10 billion in 2000.

AFK listed earlier this summer and thus has a limited trading history. However, the Dow Jones Africa Titans 50 Index offers exposure to the largest companies in some of the most promising African markets. The average P/E ratio of the stocks in the index stands at just under 22, but the average 2008 growth rate projected for AFK's top five holdings is more than +20%; that valuation looks justified by the growth prospects.

Moreover, AFK looks like a decent diversification tool for U.S.-based investors. The fund's correlation with the S&P 500 is under 0.25.

With the exception of South Africa, none of the countries where AFK invests have stocks trading as ADRs in the U.S. Furthermore, buying stocks off the African exchanges would require finding a local broker as no U.S. brokers handle trades there. Thus, AFK is one of the only ways for U.S.-based individual investors to play the African growth story.

 
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Additional Investing Ideas

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High Yield Strategy: The Billionaire Watch
To find some of the world's highest yields, just follow the money -- or in this case, the billionaires.

Another Chance to Pick Up this Growing, High-Quality Restaurant Chain
It's hard to decide which is better -- Chipotle's (CMG) food or a chance to pick up this stock at a bargain.

Hunting ELKS for a 10%-Plus Yield
These ELKS give you a double-digit yield, trade like a stock, and are protected by the share price of a high-flying biotech company.
Visit this link to read additional articles from today's leading market experts!
 
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Investor Trivia -- It  Pays to Stay Calm  

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The market is bearish and some investors are in panic mode. The last time the market traded in bear-market territory was between March 2000 and February 2002. But how much have savvy investors made after picking up stocks like Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) at bargain prices?

A.)  
Between +50% and +75%
B.)  
Between +150% and +250%
C.)  
Between +500% and +750%
D.)  
Between +1000% and +3500%
E.)  
Between +4000% and +6000%

(Please click on one the links above. After you make your choice, we'll show you the correct answer on our web site.)

 
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Featured Topic -- Companies Turning the Corner to Profitability

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Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) was one of the most wildly hyped stocks during the late-90s Internet boom. Early in its history as a public company, Amazon clearly established that consumers like the convenience of buying books online -- sales soared in its early years as a public company. Amazon truly appeared to be revolutionizing the book business.

But there was one small problem -- the one thing that Amazon didn't generate during that time period was profits. It wasn't until 2002 that the company actually turned a full-year profit.

Investors who ignored the 1990s hype and focused solely on profitability were amply rewarded. Those who bought Amazon at the end of 2002 are now up more than +280%, equivalent to almost +28% annualized.

And Amazon is by no means an isolated example. Back in 1995, Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) was a struggling dot-com startup with just $1.4 million in annual revenues. At that point in time, the vast majority of Americans were still unfamiliar with the Internet. Wall Street had yet to catch on to the company's long-term potential, and not surprisingly, the stock languished in the roughly $2-3 range (on a split-adjusted basis) throughout much of the mid-1990s.

Behind the scenes, however, Yahoo's management team was working hard to build the firm's presence in the booming online market. And as the firm's revenue base and the online advertising industry continued to grow in subsequent years, it eventually moved toward profitability. By the time 1998 rolled around, Yahoo had figured out a way to earn steady profits. Not surprisingly, investor interest in the company exploded and the firm's stock price followed suit, soaring over $120 (split adjusted) at the height of the dot-com craze in 2000.

Important Note:  Because this article is fairly extensive, we could not include it in its entirety in today's newsletter. You can find the remainder of this article on our web site. Please visit this link to continue reading this article.
  
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Free Investing Resources

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Good investing in the coming weeks!



Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest



Paul Tracy
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

TopStockAnalysts
http://www.TopStockAnalysts.com
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