Go!
Go!


Monday, September 22, 2008

Volume 2, Issue #34

Published weekly, the TopStockAnalysts Digest is loaded with stock picks, trading ideas, market commentary, and educational guidance designed to help you become a better investor. To ensure uninterrupted delivery of this newsletter, please follow these simple instructions.

Table of Contents

1.  Market Update
2.  Offshore Drilling
3.  Kinetic Concepts (KCI)
4.  Additional Investing Ideas
5.  Investor Trivia -- The Biotech Stock that Delivered Gains of +9,000%
6.  Featured Topic -- Decoding the Dividend Yield Formula
7.  Free Investing Resources

Trouble reading this email? View Online

Today's Top Stock Picks

Fed Up With Financials? Go Drilling Instead
With the markets rocking and rolling over the last two weeks, investors need to catch up on a huge development in offshore drilling. 
Read More. . .

This Cutting-Edge Medical Company has Room to Rise +65%
Deep wounds heal faster with Kinetic Concepts' revolutionary products. And their stock might just be the cure for an ailing portfolio.
Read More. . .

 

Do You Qualify?

More than 100 U.S. firms now offer an alternative to stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

We call it the "Guaranteed Retirement Contract," because your payouts are guaranteed not to drop in value, and will be delivered EVERY SINGLE MONTH for the rest of your life.

Barron's says it's "The new way to retire." Money Magazine says these unique contracts "will become the retirement investing rage."

The only question is, do you qualify? Click here for full report and details...

 
.

Market Update

.

Not to sound overly dramatic, but we have watched history unfold before our very eyes in recent days. Who could have imagined that the stunning takeover of mortgage financiers Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) was just a prelude, with the main act still to come?

The week began on a somber note when Lehman Brothers finally succumbed to its wounded balance sheet and filed for bankruptcy, an ignominious fate for a venerable company that predates the Civil War. Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) also saw the writing on the wall and sought refuge in the hands of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) in a hasty deal valued at $50 billion -- just a fraction of what the company might have fetched a year ago.

Merrill's sudden departure marked the third of Wall Street's five biggest and most storied investment houses to be pulled under by subprime quicksand. And there have been plenty of others struggling for a way out. In fact, insurance giant American International Group (NYSE: AIG) -- which has been insuring far more insidious things than cars and homes -- had gotten in over its head and finally sunk under the weight of $440 billion in credit default swaps.

By mid-week, confidence had rapidly drained out of the market and the major averages seemed almost destined to post one of their worst weeks in recent memory. At one point, demand for safety was so strong that yields on 3-month Treasury bills actually dipped into negative territory for the first time since 1940.

But on Thursday the government hatched a multi-faceted rescue plan that will temporarily ban short selling and give troubled financial firms a way to unload some of their most toxic, illiquid debt. The announcement, which came not a moment too soon, sent global markets soaring -- with the Dow gaining back almost 800 points off its lows and reclaiming nearly all the ground it lost earlier in the week.

Investors around the world are cheering the latest developments in the financial sector: London's FTSE Index rebounded +7% almost immediately; stocks in Shanghai jumped +10%, and the Irish Stock Exchange surged +25% in the first hour of trading

Below, Smart Profits Report Managing Editor Martin Denholm is swearing off financials. He's just tired of hearing about them, and who could blame him? In this week's issue, Martin points out that while the world was transfixed by the roiling of the markets, an important development was unfolding just under the radar screen -- and just offshore. He brings our Digest readers up to speed on the fascinating turn of events in offshore drilling.

After that, I explain why
Kinetic Concepts (NYSE: KCI, $32.35) is extremely well positioned for growth. This overlooked medical technology company has turned in record financial performances over the last couple of quarters, but two key growth drivers could turbo-charge their results going forward. With a new acquisition and deeper penetration into foreign markets, KCI's success won't stay a secret for much longer.       

Good Investing!


-- Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

 

Complimentary Trend Analysis For any Stock, Future, or Forex

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially. Trend Analysis kept thousands of people on the right side... don't you want to be on the right side as well?

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox.  Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

 
.

Fed Up With Financials? Go Drilling Instead

by Martin Denholm, Managing Editor -- Smart Profits Report

.

You know what? I'm done with the financial sector for now. For the past week or so, everyone (except perhaps folks in parts of deepest, darkest Peru) seems to have pontificated ad nauseum about the woes within the sector. Sure, people want to know the details -- after all, this is one of the biggest financial meltdowns in history -- but just how much is enough? And it's not like the 24/7 television coverage added any clarity to the whole murky financial mess. 

Stock markets around the world tumbled following the recent bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, coming just six months after Bear Stearns folded. The near-collapse of two other major American companies -- Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) in the housing sector -- added to the worry that Uncle Sam might have an increasingly tough time writing more checks. But apparently there was at least one more check in the checkbook, and The Federal Reserve used it to bail out American International Group (NYSE: AIG) to the tune of $85 billion.

While Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) purchase of Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) served to alleviate some fears, attention quickly focused on the next potential card to fall. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) recently reported it added $4.5 billion in loan loss provisions for the current quarter, and Moody's responded by cutting the company's bonds to "junk" status.

But sliding somewhat under the radar is another important issue...

To Drill Or Not To Drill?
While the financial world frets, lawmakers in Congress are mulling over a vote on a wide-ranging new energy package -- one that contains a controversial measure. With a moratorium on offshore drilling set to expire on September 30th, Democrats have proposed lifting it -- a move that could pave the way for offshore oil drilling on the U.S. coastline.

In a U-turn from their original opposition to the idea, Democrats now suggest repealing the ban on offshore drilling, in place since 1981, as long as it's part of a wider energy plan. Having initially stated that offshore drilling wouldn't have enough of a positive impact on U.S. gasoline prices, the Dems' new proposal would give coastal states the option of drilling between 50 and 100 miles off their coastline. Any areas more than 100 miles from the coast would be totally open to drilling.

The vote comes at a good time, too...

Preserve The Environment, Or Pay $4 For Gas?
While oil prices have declined dramatically from the record high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11th, consumers still aren't seeing much relief at the gas pump. Not yet anyway. Yes, average prices have slipped back under the $4 a gallon level, but the devastation of Hurricane Ike crippled many refineries along the Gulf of Mexico and pushed the price back up.

In all, the hurricane forced the closure of 14 refineries in Texas and Louisiana, or 20% of U.S. refining capacity. That took 3.7 million barrels of production offline -- and both companies and experts in the region say it could be another week before normal operations resume.

So it's perhaps no surprise that public sentiment towards long-term offshore drilling has shifted in favor of exploration, in order to alleviate some of the pressure at the pump as well as break America's dependence on foreign oil resources, and provide a safety net from attacks to oil supplies in the Middle East and Africa.

Florida is one such state in favor...

Florida To Get Its Drills Out?
Florida's main tourist attractions are well documented: Theme parks. But the state is also home to other attractions, such as a wide array of wildlife. For as long as the offshore drilling ban has remained in effect, residents have argued that drilling would pose a threat to the state's lucrative coastline attractions.

But with gas prices having hit $4 a gallon, times are a changin'. And in a state that has now become the focal point of election campaigns, it's a crucial issue. That's where John McCain could pick up some support. According to a Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, 6 in 10 Floridians support McCain's pro-offshore drilling stance (a stance he made crystal clear in his speech at the recent Republican Convention, declaring, "We'll drill new wells offshore and we'll drill them now.")

Many agree with Florida's Lieutenant Governor, Jeff Kottkamp (a Republican), who says he and his fellow leaders in the state can drill offshore, while also preserving its natural beauty, thanks to newer, safer technology.

Quoted in the International Herald Tribune (IHT), executive director of the Florida Petroleum Council, David Mica, says natural gas could hold more promise than crude oil. That's because existing wells that were restricted because of the offshore drilling ban could be explored "in less that two years in an environmentally friendly sensitive way," due to modern technological advances.

Aside from the environmental issues, there is also a deeper reason for wanting to drill: National security. With foreign oil an increasingly unstable resource, due to Middle East tensions and Russia's recently renewed aggression, the need for alternative energy sources is unfortunately heightened, even if it means slightly comprising the environment.

You can see why: Almost two-thirds of America's 21 million barrels of oil usage per day are imported from the Gulf, Africa, and Latin America. But is offshore drilling the "cure all" for America's oil needs?

Massive Drilling Could Have Little Impact
The U.S. still gobbles up one-quarter of the world's oil production, yet only possesses 3% of the world's oil reserves, so drilling might not be enough. In addition, it may not have the quick and positive impact on gas prices that many expect. While many politicians are obviously keen to pander to voters' wishes at this time of year, some Republicans believe the Democrat plan is a crafty way of promoting offshore drilling, but one that doesn't actually boost domestic production very much.

Quoted in Reuters, Republican Roy Blunt of Missouri is one such dissenter, saying it "removes the financial incentive for coastal states to team up with the federal government to break our dependence on foreign oil and bring prices down at the pump."
Others point out that some states will be reluctant to participate if there is no revenue sharing plan. And still others complain that restricting firms from drilling within 50 miles from the shore means they can't take advantage of oil located in the outer-continental shelf.

In addition, the IHT notes that government analysis has shown that a widespread offshore drilling program "would result in a price reduction of perhaps two-tenths of one cent 18 years after drilling begins."

This issue is a longer-term concern -- but one well worth watching in the run-up to Election Day on November 4th.

P.S. Speaking of energy resources, the October Xcelerated Profits Report issue features a brand new natural gas play from commodities expert Lee Lowell. Having been involved with the commodities sector for 17 years, including six as a market maker in the NYMEX trading pits, where he set the prices for oil and natural gas, Lee tells me that this is a terrific opportunity to get into a depressed market at a bargain price. And having seen the play, you don't want to miss it. For more information, simply click here.

 

 

Generate Yields of 11.8% Yield with this WSP

This telecommunications company is benefiting greatly from the increasing demand for data service plans in its home country. Its data services revenue is up +45% and promises to continue growing as the country's young population steps up its demand for more advanced cell phone applications. On the whole, total returns are up +40% and the company is passing these gains on to investors. You see, it pays 75% of its annual net income to shareholders every 3 months -- in cash.

Learn more here

 
.
 

This Cutting-Edge Medical Company has Room to Rise +65%

 by Nathan Slaughter, Editor -- Half-Priced Stocks

.

Kinetic Concepts (NYSE: KCI, $32.35) is a medical technology company specializing in systems designed for the treatment of deep wounds. Specifically, the company is a leading provider of vacuum-assisted closure (VAC) products, which apply pressure to the wound site, protect against infection, and promote much faster healing.

Because they can dramatically reduce recovery time, these products are popular with patients, doctors and insurance companies. And thanks to growing demand, the company has seen annual revenues double over the past five years -- climbing from $763 million in 2003 to $1.7 billion today.

While this success has invited some competition, Kinetic was the first to penetrate this market and currently enjoys a near-monopoly. Furthermore, it has locked up valuable patents that will help keep rivals at bay until late 2012 at the earliest.

And the company continues to scale new heights. Over the past six months, sales have advanced +15% to reach $882 million, led by growth of more than +25% in foreign markets. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings have jumped more than +20% to $1.92 per share. Better still, there are two key growth drivers on the horizon.

First, the company is expanding its presence overseas and planning to enter Japan and Germany within the next two years, both huge potential markets. In the meantime, management has just acquired LifeCell, a tissue regeneration specialist whose sales have quintupled over the past five years -- thanks to products that carry lofty gross margins above 70%.

This purchase will add some diversification to the firm's product portfolio and chip in over $200 million in annual revenues. And that total should ramp up significantly when pushed through Kinetic's international distribution channels -- the firm has a dedicated clinical sales force and has established working relationships with 9,000 hospitals in 18 countries, more than four times as many as LifeCell.

However, despite posting record first-half results and completing a major acquisition that could yield hundreds of millions in revenue synergies, the shares have fallen with the rest of the market. In fact, KCI is trading in the low $30s, off its October 2007 peak of $63.

That leaves the stock trading at just 6.3 times cash flows -- about half its long-term historic average and a sharp discount to the industry norm of 18.8. Based on a fair value of $53, the shares have promising upside potential of around +65%.

Kinetic's VAC products are currently used to treat over 1.7 million patients annually. But the firm has barely begun to crack many foreign markets. In fact, the company estimates there are roughly two million treatable wounds outside the U.S. every year, and global market penetration rates are still below 10%.

And aside from the developments mentioned above, it's also worth noting the firm has just signed a potentially lucrative marketing agreement with Dow component 3M (NYSE: MMM).

With all this in mind, I think the stock is an attractive idea at prices below $37 per share, which represents a hefty margin of safety with a healthy upside potential.
 
.

Additional Investing Ideas

.

When the Going Gets Tough, The Tough Go Fishin'
Are you stressed by the tumultuous market? Are you confused by the constant price swings driven by irrational rumors and unexpected economic reports? There's an easier way.

Capture a 12% Yield with a Fund that Likes These Market Swings fluctuations are no problem for this growth and income fund; in fact it makes money from them.

Inside the Highest-Yielding Country in the World
Can you guess which Pacific nation's stocks pay an average dividend of 7.4%?
Visit this link to read additional articles from today's leading market experts!
 
.

Investor Trivia -- The Biotech Stock that Delivered Gains of +9,000%

.

Investors have their pick of more than 500 publicly listed biotech companies, but many of those have no earnings, are bleeding cash and stand little chance of making real money for shareholders. However, which of these biotech stocks has bucked the trend and delivered an eye-popping gain of more than +9,000% in the last 10 years?

A.) 
Celgene (CELG)
B.)  
Biogen (BIIB)
C.)  
BioMarin (BMRN)
D.)  
Genzyme (GENZ)
E.)  
PDL Biopharma (PDLI)

(Please click on one the links above. After you make your choice, we'll show you the correct answer on our web site.)

 
.

Featured Topic -- Decoding the Dividend Yield Formula

.

The Pythagorean Theorem isn't going to make you any money. Nor the quadratic equation. But there is a financial formula -- an immutable law of investing -- that can help you choose stocks that will pay a double-digit yield for as long as you own them.

In our "Feature Topic" we'll help you profit using this fundamental investing principle -- which works in any market, up or down. We'll also show you how to use this tool to juice your portfolio's returns with rich dividend streams -- double-digit payouts you otherwise wouldn't be able to obtain. 

It's not complicated or esoteric. But it's still a bit of investing minutia that people tend to overlook or just get wrong:

A stock's yield is calculated by dividing the per-share dividend by the purchase price, not the market price.

Price and yield move in opposite directions. As stock prices rise, dividend yields go down. As stock prices fall, dividend yields rise.

Let's look at an example: A fictitious stock trades for $100 a share and pays a $5 dividend. You don't even need a calculator to determine its yield: It's 5%.

Conventional thinking is that if the price of this mythical company rises, say to $200, then its dividend yield will fall. And indeed it will -- it will be cut in half. $5 / $200 = 2.5%. But that only applies to investors who bought the shares at the new price. The investor who bought at $100 is still earning a 5% yield.  

But here's where things get interesting -- and profitable...

Important Note:  Because this article is fairly extensive, we could not include it in its entirety in today's newsletter. You can find the remainder of this article on our web site. Please visit this link to continue reading this article.
  
.

Free Investing Resources

.

26 Stocks that Doubled -- Since David and Tom Gardner launched The Motley Fool Stock Advisor in April 2000... a full 26 of their picks have doubled in value or more. In a FREE report, The Motley Fool co-founders reveal their top two profit-making opportunities for 2008 and beyond.
Sign up now.

52 Wins in 52 Weeks -- 365 Days Without A Loss -- Get our weekend newsletter free and register for Success Trading Group's next stock picks, free for 30 days!
Take advantage of this free offer.

 


Good investing in the coming weeks!



Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest



Paul Tracy
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest

TopStockAnalysts
http://www.TopStockAnalysts.com
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd. 
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614

P.S. -- If you're not already a subscriber to one of StreetAuthority.com's premium investing newsletters, which include a wealth of additional information and specific investing guidance that you won't find anywhere else, then please visit the following page to learn more: http://www.StreetAuthority.com/subscribe.asp

 
.

TopStockAnalysts Digest Web Site Content...

.

 

You are receiving this newsletter because you visited us at TopStockAnalysts.com and registered to receive our complimentary biweekly investing newsletter -- TopStockAnalysts Digest. If you feel you have received this issue in error, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe or contact us by visiting our web site.

If you are interested in advertising in this newsletter, or on our web site, please visit this link.

This message was sent by an automated message delivery platform. Please do not reply to this email address. Any messages sent to this address will be automatically deleted. We sincerely hope that you benefit from your subscription to this complimentary newsletter, and we're willing to do whatever it takes to keep you as a satisfied customer. However, if at any time you wish to discontinue your subscription, you can do so by simply visiting this link and confirming your request, or by calling (301) 216-2005.

Please note that TopStockAnalysts is not a registered investment firm or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. TopStockAnalysts does not purport to tell or suggest which investment securities members or readers should buy or sell for themselves. Site users should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. TopStockAnalysts will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained in this newsletter or on our web site. Our readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.

The information contained herein does not constitute a representation by the publisher or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. Our opinions and analyses are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in this report should be independently verified with the companies mentioned. The editor and publisher are not responsible for errors or omissions. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities discussed in this report or on our web site.

Copyright 2001-2008 TopStockAnalysts. All rights reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.


Meet the Experts    Newsletters    Special Offers    Email Preferences    FAQ
About Us    Advertise    Privacy    Disclaimer    Help    Terms of Use


TopStockAnalysts button StreetAuthority button Dividend Opportunities button

(c) Copyright 2001-2010 TopStockAnalysts.com -- All Rights Reserved