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All You Need is One Good Idea

Published: 2/11/09 at 4:00 PM ET

   
We are very excited to offer this special edition of TopStockAnalysts Digest, featuring our guest contributor, Paul Goodwin.

Paul Goodwin has been a member of the Cabot investment team and editor of Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report since 2005. A researcher and writer for over 30 years, Paul brings a lifetime of inquiry to the task of figuring out whether stocks and markets are likely to go up or down. Under Paul's stewardship, the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report was ranked by Hulbert Financial Digest as the top-performing newsletter for two years in a row: in 2006 with a +76% gain and 2007 with a +74.1% gain. Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report was also named Investment Letter of the Year for 2007 by Peter Brimelow of MarketWatch and Best Financial Advisory Newsletter in 2008 by the Specialized Information Publishers Foundation.

All You Need is One Good Idea

-- By Paul Goodwin, Editor, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report

I just received an email from an online bookseller recommending what it called "Career Books to Stay Competitive." The message talked about how "technology, business and the working world are changing rapidly in today's fast-paced environment," and how you need to read these books "to keep you sharp and on top."

That's all very nice marketing-speak, but the message is clear. These days, either you do everything you can to be indispensable or your name may be on the next pink slip.

The 30 books were neatly divided into six different categories -- which I'm not going to list -- but here are five from the "Taking Care of Business" section. "The Path of Least Resistance" by Robert Fritz, "Cut to the Chase" by Stuart Levine, "The Effective Executive" by Peter F. Drucker, "Making Things Happen" by Scott Berkun, and "Getting Things Done" by David Allen.

As is usual with this kind of professional self-help book, the titles are just teasers, while the subtitles actually deliver the book's promises.

The subtitle of "Path of Least Resistance" goes on to offer "Learning to Become the Creative Force in Your Own Life." "Cut to the Chase" turns out to be about that and "99 Other Rules to Liberate Yourself and Gain Back the Gift of Time." Yes, big promises do come in flat packages and cost about $30.

The importance of education during rough economic times is a story that my fellow Cabot analysts and I are well aware of. The education sector has been one of the relatively few bright spots in this cranky market.

But beyond the specific tips, insights and information that these books offer, they have another vital function. They give people a reason to hope.

If you can read something that makes you a better employee, a better boss, even a better person, you can transcend your limitations and live the life you want. At least that's the theory.

It's the same way with investing. Every year there are literally dozens of books that tell you how to thrive in the coming downturn, make hay even when the sun isn't shining, make a million (or even a billion!) in the stock market.

If you search for "stock investing" in Amazon's book section, you get 7,353 results. I gave up after scrolling through just 96 of them.

During my quick survey, I found a bunch of entries for books aimed at either beginners, idiots or dummies. There are books aimed at investing in small caps, micro caps, options, growth stocks, value stocks and low-priced value stocks, dividend-yielding stocks, momentum stocks, penny stocks, Chinese stocks, day trading, swing trading, short-term trading, and green investing. And remember, this is just the first 96 entries!

It's enough to make a person think that the way to make money in the stock market is to let the stocks alone and write a book about it instead.

I have just three points to make about this plethora, this avalanche, of books about how to invest in stocks.

First, don't expect a book to change your work life or your investing life. You got to be the investor you are through a lifetime of experience, and if one book can really change your fundamental approach, maybe you're not ready for the character testing that the market administers.

Second, Carlton Lutts, the founder of our company, used to say that all you need to get from a book to make it worth the reading is one good idea. Cabot Heritage is headquartered in a decommissioned branch library, and the wall next to where I sit is lined with books on investing, some of them dating back to the 1920s. If you're serious about becoming a better investor, you should be doing your homework, hoping that every book you read delivers that one good idea.

Third, as I wrote above, sometimes what these books are selling is hope. Investing is a tough business, and the market has no qualms at all about grinding your best stocks into dust. A book that gives you renewed confidence and allows you to stay in the game may just have done its job.
 

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My investment idea today is more of a macro play than I usually recommend. It's an exchange-traded fund called iShares FTSI/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI). The name is a mouthful, so I'll just keep calling it FXI.

The FXI follows the Dow Jones Industrial Average of China, representing the performance of 25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese stocks that trade here in the U.S. As such, it serves as a snapshot of the health of the market, not rising as fast as the hottest Chinese stocks, but not falling as quickly either.

It's a macro play because owning it gives broad exposure to China. It's a good choice for right now because the issue has been rising strongly since the middle of January and recent volume clues -- specifically, above-average volume on February 4 and 5 -- indicate increasing institutional interest in the future of Chinese blue chips.

Investments like the iShares ETF provide a chance to benefit from a macro story like the continuing growth of China without doing the detail work to select likely winners from among all of the Chinese stocks that trade as American Depositary Receipts, or ADRs, on U.S. exchanges.

In mid-January FXI was trading at $23. It closed last night around $27. There is possible resistance at $31/$32 from December and January, but another piece of good news to silence the China doubters could sweep that all away. I think it's a reasonable bet.

Sincerely,



Paul Goodwin
For Cabot Wealth Advisory

Editor's Note: Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report isn't the only Cabot publication discovering hot growth stocks. Cabot Top Ten Report uses our proprietary screening software to ferret out the 10 strongest stocks each week, no matter what's happening in the market. The Report routinely beats the market by finding strong leaders like these past picks:

In 2005, Hansen Natural gained a whopping +570%. In 2006, NutriSystem was up an amazing +480% in 11 months. In 2007, stocks like JA Solar were up +200% in seven months, DryShips was up +510% in 10 months and Research in Motion was up 149% in seven months. Even during last year's bear market, Cabot Top Ten Report has found winners in stocks like Cleveland-Cliffs, which doubled in four months, Continental Resources, which rose +160% from its recommendation to its peak, and Walter Industries, which rocketed from $42 in January to $112 in early July.

To discover the strongest stocks in the market today, click here.
 


Good investing in the coming weeks!

Nathan Slaughter
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest


Paul Tracy
Co-Editor
TopStockAnalysts Digest



 

 

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