Friday, June 12, 2009
Volume 3, Issue #50
Also in Today's Issue...
Following last year's dismal market performance, investors are understandably cautious. Both Wall Street and Main Street are looking for something they can be sure of in the year ahead. And for income investors, that means finding a safe and rewarding dividend yield. It used to be that dividend payers themselves were the thing investors could be sure of. Tucked in the shadow of more aggressive and volatile Wall Street darlings, these venerable firms conducted their business, generated solid cash flows, posted their earnings and paid their dividends. These companies all made money the old-fashioned way. They earned it. High-flying? No. Dependable? Yes. But last year was a tough year for dividend payers. Sixty-one of the companies in the S&P 500 Index cut their dividends in 2008, equating to $40.6 billion in lost dividend income. But it's time to apply last year's hard lessons and take a clear-eyed look at risk, performance strength, dividend coverage and, lastly, potential return. The Dow Jones Industrial Average represents some of the strongest names in America. The 30 members of the Dow are worth a collective $2.83 trillion and are considered to be the market leaders in their industries. So these corporate titans are a good place to start searching for the safest dividend. Safety Criteria No. 1: Yield
Safety Criteria No. 2: Performance Stability Next, I want to be sure the outlook for the company is stable. If there is notable trouble on the horizon, one place it will show up is in a company's projected earnings. For the purposes of this analysis, I'll shy away from any company expected to show more than a -5% decline in earnings this year, based on the consensus Bloomberg estimate.
Considering the challenges of the current economic environment, it's not surprising that this analysis takes five more companies out of contention. We're left with just two firms: Kraft and Verizon. Safety Criteria No. 3: Dividend Coverage
52 Wins in 52 Weeks - 365 Days Without A Loss Learn More
Remember, safety is the first and most important criteria I look at when examining a dividend-paying stock. With that in mind, I decided to look into the most recently reported quarter for each company and compare net earnings to total dividends paid. We must exclude any company that paid more in dividends than it earned. That sort of arrangement is unsustainable. Any company whose dividend costs exceed its net earnings lacks the margin of safety that conservative income investors in this market must demand. This is a tough hurdle to clear: The first quarter of 2009 presented extremely difficult operating conditions. Any company able to comfortably maintain its distributions in such a challenging environment clearly has demonstrated a wide economic moat.
Here are the results: Kraft earned $662 million and paid out $426 million for a payout ratio of 64.7%. Verizon earned $1.6 billion against its $1.3 billion dividend obligation for a payout ratio of 79.4%. Safety Criteria No. 4: Track Record and Upside Potential We're still left with two companies. Both Kraft and Verizon have above-average yields, have a stable outlook and have demonstrated an ability to cover their dividends under tough economic conditions. At this point, I'll turn to history as a guidepost, looking at each company's average P/E, dividend growth rate and average annual total returns for the past five years.
Amazingly, both companies are trading at almost identical discounts to their five-year average P/E. If each stock returned to its average P/E, Verizon would appreciate +37.1% while Kraft would appreciate +37.2%. Apparently that's not going to break a tie. Verizon does yield 1.9% more than Kraft, although Kraft has grown its dividend at a faster rate. Both companies also outperformed the S&P 500's annualized total returns for the past five years. But Verizon outgained Kraft by +1.7% a year -- by almost the same amount as its dividend premium over Kraft. As a telecommunications provider, Verizon is an essential service with high subscriber loyalty. Kraft Foods includes strong consumer food brands like Kraft cheeses, Oscar Mayer meats and Nabisco cookies. Both companies boast of above-average yields and both dividends passed my stringent safety criteria. If pressed, I'd have to tip the scale to Verizon for the safest dividend in the Dow. Its higher 6.3% yield has made a positive impact on its total returns. And that difference is something we income investors can take to the bank. Good Investing!
-- Carla Pasternak Editor High-Yield Investing
P.S. I know of one stock whose yield is even higher than Verizon's -- and just as secure. I've been recommending this security to my readers for years, and it has rewarded us handsomely. Right now it's yielding a hefty 9.5%. But the best part about this stock is that it pays monthly... AND it's never cut its dividend. Go here to get the full story on this stock now.
Additional Investing Ideas
Paul Tracy Co-Editor TopStockAnalysts Digest
P.S. -- If you're not already a subscriber to one of StreetAuthority.com's premium investing newsletters, which include a wealth of additional information and specific investing guidance that you won't find anywhere else, then please visit the following page to learn more: http://www.StreetAuthority.com/subscribe.asp
TopStockAnalysts Digest Web Site Content...
.
Newsletters/Archives
Customer Service
You are receiving this newsletter because you visited us at TopStockAnalysts.com and registered to receive our complimentary biweekly investing newsletter -- TopStockAnalysts Digest. If you feel you have received this issue in error, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe or contact us by visiting our web site.
If you are interested in advertising in this newsletter, or on our web site, please visit this link.
This message was sent by an automated message delivery platform. Please do not reply to this email address. Any messages sent to this address will be automatically deleted. We sincerely hope that you benefit from your subscription to this complimentary newsletter, and we're willing to do whatever it takes to keep you as a satisfied customer. However, if at any time you wish to discontinue your subscription, you can do so by simply visiting this link and confirming your request, or by calling (301) 216-2005.
Please note that TopStockAnalysts is not a registered investment firm or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. TopStockAnalysts does not purport to tell or suggest which investment securities members or readers should buy or sell for themselves. Site users should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. TopStockAnalysts will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained in this newsletter or on our web site. Our readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
The information contained herein does not constitute a representation by the publisher or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. Our opinions and analyses are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in this report should be independently verified with the companies mentioned. The editor and publisher are not responsible for errors or omissions. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities discussed in this report or on our web site. StreetAuthority's Headquarter is located at 839-K Quince Orchard Blvd, Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614.
Copyright 2001-2009 TopStockAnalysts. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited.