Monday, August 13, 2007
Volume 1, Issue #4
Published every other Monday, the TopStockAnalysts Digest is loaded with stock picks, trading ideas, market commentary, and educational guidance designed to help you become a better investor. To ensure uninterrupted delivery of this newsletter, please follow these simple instructions.
Table of Contents
1. Market Outlook 2. Dolby (DLB) 3. Panera Bread (PNRA) 4. Additional Investing Ideas 5. Investor Trivia -- Asset Allocation 6. Featured Topic -- Stock Buybacks 7. Free Investing Resources
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Today's Top Stock Picks
Hefty Profit Margins Make Dolby an Appealing Investment Overlooked by the market, this firm, with profit margins of nearly 30%, stands to earn a nice return for investors. Read More. . .
Panera: A Phenomenal Growth Story Trading at a 29% Discount Shares of restaurant chain Panera Bread (PNRA) have struggled recently, leaving an attractive entry point for value investors. Read More. . .
Who Needs Capital Gains... When You're Pulling in 34.4% in Dividends Now you can have both... If you're looking for high yields and enormous capital gains, then you need to learn more about StreetAuthority's "High-Yield Security of the Month" for August 2007. Just a few short weeks ago, this fund sent out a special letter to shareholders. In that letter, management said it will soon pay one of the largest dividends in Wall Street history -- an enormous distribution of $14.51 per share. That gives the fund a projected forward dividend yield of 34.4%. Adding to its appeal, this fund also gives investors exposure to one of the world's fastest-growing foreign markets, helping it deliver average gains of +46.0% per year since 2004.
Learn the name of this security!
Market Outlook
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Like a spine-tingling roller coaster, the market has been wildly unpredictable lately -- with each new rise or fall creating or destroying billions in market capitalization in the span of a few hours. Since peaking above 14,000 on July 19th, the Dow Industrials have made a habit out of posting tumultuous triple-digit price swings. In fact, when the Dow kicked off last week with a 286-point surge on Monday, it marked the eighth time in ten sessions that the index moved at least 100 points in one direction or the other. However, for those who happen to like volatility, the real excitement was still to come. Over the next couple days, the market's gyrations were enough to make even hardened market watchers a little dizzy. On Wednesday, for example, the Dow shot up nearly 200 points on better-than-expected earnings from tech bellwether Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), only to fall all the way back into negative territory on unsubstantiated rumors regarding Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), before rebounding to finish with yet another triple-digit gain. At that point, the broader S&P 500 was riding its strongest three-day winning streak in nearly five years. Yet, just when the worst appeared over, a move by French bank BNP Paribas to suspend withdrawals from three troubled funds holding subprime debt-related assets sent the Dow reeling nearly 400 points on Thursday. Nevertheless, when the dust finally settled, the Dow finished the week with a modest gain of +0.4% -- snapping a three-week losing streak. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and S&P finished with solid gains of +1.4% and +1.5%, respectively.
Right now, investors remain on high alert for further signs of tightening in the credit markets. Any significant news on that front is likely to catapult stocks one way or the other, and we might continue to see headlines containing the phrase "biggest one-day gain (or loss) in years." So, why has turmoil in the credit markets caused a global panic? For one thing, a rash of defaults has taken a heavy toll on financial stocks -- which make up the heaviest weighting (around 20%) of any sector in the S&P 500. At the same time, it has forced lenders to clamp down on the flow of inexpensive cash that corporate and private equity borrowers have used to fund a wave of acquisitions. It is liquidity that oils the capital markets, and when funding is hard to come by, everything seizes and comes to a grinding halt -- much like an oil-starved engine. To combat the risk of a credit crunch, the Fed (as well as its counterparts in Europe and Asia) has intervened by injecting tens of billions into the banking system to keep overnight lending rates low For now, it's difficult to say whether these moves will work. However, it's a safe bet that changes in the credit markets will go a long way towards filling in the blanks on future market headlines.
In the meantime, it remains business as usually for many investors -- and that means hunting for new investment ideas. Below, Timothy Lutts, Editor of Cabot Wealth Advisory, pushes the play button on Dolby Labs (NYSE: DLB, $35.44). Think Dolby is merely an outdated relic of the audio tape era? Think again. This patent-rich company is continually reinventing itself. Also in today's TopStockAnalysts Digest, I explain why now might be the time to place an order for Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA, $43.31). The casual dining chain is expected to deliver red-hot earnings growth of +22% annually over the next five years, yet because of short-term concerns the stock trades at a cool 29% discount to its fair value. Good Investing!
-- Nathan Slaughter Co-Editor TopStockAnalysts Digest
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Hefty Profit Margins Make Dolby an Appealing Investment by Timothy Lutts, Editor -- Cabot Wealth Advisory
America has an ongoing pursuit of happiness and an ongoing preoccupation with entertainment. For all the carping about hardship in America, the fact is that everyone buying a big screen TV, or an iPod, or going on a trip to Disney World, or a trip to Las Vegas, is signaling that they've achieved the basics, they've worked hard enough, and now they're going to spend some money to have some fun! So where's the investment angle here? Not in Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). I think Apple -- regardless of how many million iPods, iPhones, and iMacs it sells in the year ahead -- is too well loved to be a good investment here. All the stock's great growth phases have begun when the company was unloved. Today, I think you're better off looking for companies with great growth prospects that are not well loved. And happily so. Most people over a certain age will remember Dolby Labs (NYSE: DLB, $35.44) as the company whose noise-reduction system saved us all from tape hiss back in the mid-1960s, when reel-to-reel tape machines ruled the audio world. Now the company has predicted that it would continue to capitalize on the growth of HDTV and personal computers. Dolby's revenues come from royalties on its patents for improving the sound of DVD players and other electronics. Most movie theaters also use Dolby to improve sound. This is a straight revenue/profit story, supplemented by high profit margins, and Dolby looks to be on track. Dolby's sound-enhancing wizardry can be found on both HD DVD and Blu-ray disks, on PCs, game consoles, and portable media players, and on sound systems from headphones to movie theaters. According to one estimate, over 2.2 billion devices have been built to include one or more Dolby technologies, which helps to explain how roughly three-quarters of the company's revenues are generated by licensing. Dolby Laboratories has also announced the decision by the Digital Video Broadcasting Project (DVB), an industry consortium committed to designing global standards for digital TV, to include Dolby Digital Plus audio technology as an option in the latest version of its Internet protocol television (IPTV) specifications. IPTV. It's going to be big, and Dolby's going to be part of it. So, while Dolby is a well-respected name -- and for good reason -- it's not a well-loved stock. First, it has made no one rich; it came public only two years ago, and it's "just" +88% above its IPO price today. And second, many baby-boomer investors still identify Dolby best with its original tape-oriented products, and assume the company is therefore on the trailing edge of technology, instead of the leading edge. But Dolby is a great example of a company that has used its patents to erect a high barrier to entry. And today, partly because these barriers give it pricing power and partly because it has a royalty-heavy revenue stream, it boasts profit margins of 28.6%. I think it's worth checking out.
Panera: A Phenomenal Growth Story Trading at a 29% Discount by Nathan Slaughter, Editor -- Half-Priced Stocks
Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA, $43.31) -- One of the problems of investing in a high-flying growth stock is that investors are not at all forgiving -- even a hint of a slowdown can send the shares tumbling. On the other hand, these irrational selloffs can knock such stocks down into value territory, giving nimble investors the rare opportunity to pick up rapidly growing companies at discounted prices. Such is the case with fast-casual dining chain Panera Bread, which has retreated from nearly $60 to around $40 over the past two months. Panera operates a chain of more than 1,000 fast-casual eateries. The firm's popular bakery-cafe style outlets are well-known for their pastries and baked goods -- which are made with dough delivered fresh each morning. Without a doubt, the fast-casual dining space is crowded. However, there is a reason why Panera has been awarded top marks for customer loyalty over and over again. The firm goes a step above your standard soup and sandwich meals -- think chicken & wild rice in a sourdough bowl or turkey & artichoke on rosemary & onion focaccia. And aside from its fresh, healthier entrees, customers can also relax in a quiet setting with complimentary high-speed Internet service. Yet, with an average ticket of just $7 to $8, customers aren't paying much more than they would for a combo meal at their favorite fast-food hangout. As a result, the company occupies its own growing niche -- somewhere in between Burger King (NYSE: BKC) and Chili's (NYSE: EAT). The results speak for themselves: revenues have soared +33% annually over the last five years, quadrupling from $200 million to around $830 million. At the moment, the average Panera bakery now rakes in weekly sales of about $38,200, which works out to about $2 million per year -- easily outpacing most of its rivals. The shares have come under fire in recent weeks from a very demanding market. Much of the damage came after the company reported an -11% drop in second-quarter earnings amid rising costs and mediocre same-store sales growth. Worse still, the company issued a soft outlook for the upcoming quarter. But it seems shortsighted to erase nearly one third of the firm's market capitalization just because costs have crept upward lately. While we do think rising commodity prices could continue to present a challenge, this is hardly a company-specific problem -- many others are battling it as well. And Panera will be in a better position than many to at least partially pass these additional input costs on to consumers. Meanwhile, none of this is an indication that Panera's restaurants have lost their appeal. In fact, business already appears to be picking back up, as same-store sales (a key metric for restaurants and retailers) are expected to have rebounded sharply in July -- rising between +3.6% and +3.9%. Investors should expect the firm to continue with its aggressive expansion plans -- there is room for the store base to grow from the current 1,100 to as many as 5,000. That is expected to help drive the firm's earnings up +22% annually over the next five years. Based in part on that robust outlook, we have calculated a fair value of $61 per share -- about where the shares were trading back in June. Now that recently lowered full-year guidance has dampened short-term expectations, much of the risk in the shares has been removed. And given the company's solid long-term outlook, we think now is the time to act.
Additional Investing Ideas
Invest in China's Healthcare Industry With Shares of Mindray The SARS outbreak emphasized the importance of healthcare in China, and this relatively new stock should be a direct beneficiary.
Capture a 6.5% Yield With This Cash Cow Investors in this master limited partnership (MLP) have seen steadily increasing dividend payments, in addition to a steadily increasing share price.
The World's Thirst for Energy Means a Bright Future for Peabody With operations in the western U.S. and Australia, this firm is well-situated for future growth.
Investor Trivia -- Asset Allocation
Academic studies have repeatedly shown the biggest factor driving an individual's long-term investment returns is not security selection, but rather overall asset allocation. According to Morningstar, which of the five following asset classes has delivered the strongest gains from August 2002 to August 2007? A.) Large-Cap Growth Stocks B.) High-Yield "Junk" Bonds C.) Small-Cap Value Stocks D.) U.S. Government Bonds E.) Precious Metals (Dow P.M. Index)
(Please click on one the links above. After you make your choice, we'll show you the correct answer on our web site.)
Featured Topic -- Stock Buybacks
Over the past couple years, it seems that hardly a day has gone by without a company announcing plans for a major stock buyback -- the very act of which often drives its shares sharply higher. In fact, if there was a giant scoreboard that tallied up the total amount of cash public companies spent on share repurchases, it would have flashed an incredible figure of $432,000,000,000 last year -- for S&P 500 firms alone. But what exactly are stock buybacks (also called share repurchases), and how can you actually profit from them? How Stock Buybacks Work First, it helps to go back to the basics: a share of stock represents ownership in a company. For example, if you own 10 shares of a company that has 1,000 shares outstanding, then you essentially have a claim on 1% of the firm. Should the number of shares rise for any reason, then your stake would be diluted. Buybacks do the exact opposite by removing outstanding shares and boosting your proportional ownership in the company. Should the number of shares drop from 1,000 to 800, you would then own 1.25% of the company, significantly increasing your slice of the pie. Consider the example for a fictional company below:
Pre-Buyback
Post-Buyback
Cash
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
Net Income
$2,500,000
Outstanding Shares
5,000,000
4,750,000
Price/Market Cap.
$20/$100 million
$20/$95 million
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.50
$0.526
Price/Earnings
40
38
Suppose this hypothetical company decides to spend $5 million on share repurchases. At the current price of $20 per share, that would reduce the outstanding share count by 250,000 shares. As a result, the firm's earnings (and cash flows, etc.) would rise on a per-share (EPS) basis -- in this case from $0.50 to nearly $0.53 per share. In other words, the company's EPS would have climbed +6%, even without a single penny of additional net income. Editor's Note: Because this article is fairly extensive, we could not include it in its entirety within today's newsletter. Please visit this link to read the remainder of this article on our web site.
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Good investing in the coming weeks!
Nathan Slaughter Co-Editor TopStockAnalysts Digest
Paul Tracy Co-Editor TopStockAnalysts Digest
TopStockAnalysts http://www.TopStockAnalysts.com 839-K Quince Orchard Blvd. Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614
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