Published:
November 19, 2007
Around 1000 B.C. atop Mount
Parnassus in Greece, a sheepherder
came across a flame leaping from a
crack in a rock. The flame emitted
little smoke and there was no
apparent fuel -- no wood or leaves
burning nearby. Assuming it was
supernatural, the Greeks built the
temple of the Oracle of Delphi
around that fire, creating one of
the most famous sites in ancient
Greek history.
While that flame was hardly
magical, the colorless fuel that
powered it certainly ranks as one of
the most important human discoveries
of all time. That same mysterious
gas is now one of the most valuable
commodities on the planet and is
quite literally powering growth all
over the world.
The temple at Delphi was only the
first of many structures and human
endeavors fueled by natural gas. The
magical flame was caused by gas
seeping slowly from the Earth -- a
common natural phenomenon in parts
of Greece. That famed temple flame
was, most likely, ignited by a
simple lightning strike.
Gas has been put to practical use
as a source of heat and light for
well over 2,000 years. Five hundred
years after the Oracle of Delphi was
constructed, the Chinese built
bamboo pipes to carry gas from
similar seeps, using it to boil
water and desalinate seawater. And
starting in the summer of 1816, the
streets of Baltimore, Maryland
stopped going dark every evening
after they installed streetlamps
powered by natural gas.
Nowadays the world is more
dependent on natural gas than ever.
Because gas burns much cleaner than
coal or oil, it has become the fuel
of choice in modern-day power
plants. Meanwhile, many consumers
rely on natural gas to power their
stoves, ovens and heaters. This is
not only a U.S. phenomenon -- major
gas-fired power plant construction
projects are underway across Europe
and in fast-growing markets like
India and China.
Simply
put: Natural gas is by far the
world's fastest growing mainstream
fossil fuel. And going forward, as
you can see in my chart, this trend
is likely to continue for some time
to come.
Since 1965, global consumption of
natural gas has nearly quadrupled to
more than 260 billion cubic feet per
year. Meanwhile, crude oil
consumption is up roughly 2.5 times.
According to the U.S. Department
of Energy (DOE), U.S. consumption of
natural gas is projected to rise by
nearly +40% between now and 2025.
And electricity demand is growing
even faster in developing markets
like China and India; these
countries are building gas-fired
power plants to meet part of that
demand. The DOE projects a more than
doubling in gas demand across the
emerging markets by 2025.
Looking at the longer-term
picture, the tidal wave of global
gas demand is an important
consideration. As global demand
rises and producers struggle to keep
up, gas prices are likely to rise
over the long haul.
How to Profit from Natural Gas
When many investors think of natural
gas firms, they think first of their
local distribution company, or
"LDC." LDCs are normally
utility companies that own the
smaller pipes that carry gas around
a particular city or county. If you
use gas to heat your home or as a
fuel for your stove, then the LDC is
the company that sells you that gas.
But LDCs do not provide investors
with a good way to profit from
higher gas demand and pricing. In
fact, contrary to popular belief,
higher gas prices are normally a big
negative for LDCs.
The reason for this is simple:
LDCs charge regulated rates for gas
-- rates that are set by state and
local governments. Those rates are
normally made up of three separate
components: a base hook-up fee, a
commodity fee, and a fee based on
gas throughput.
The base hookup fee is relatively
fixed. Meanwhile the commodity fee
moves up and down based on natural
gas prices. And finally, the
throughput fee rises and falls based
on how much gas is consumed.
Most LDCs do not explore for and
produce their own natural gas.
Instead, they buy gas from
third-party producers. Thus, while
your gas bill might rise due to an
increase in the commodity component,
most or all of that simply gets
passed through to the gas producers
who sell to the LDCs.
Meanwhile, when natural gas
prices are high, the throughput fees
that LDCs earn tend to decrease due
to the impact of gas conservation.
The reason is simple -- when gas
prices rise, consumers usually turn
the thermostat lower in the winter
and/or take steps to conserve energy
in other ways. That leads to less
energy consumed, and therefore lower
throughput charges for LDCs. This is
bad news for your local gas utility
firm.
In an effort to recoup this lost
revenue, LDCs will usually apply for
rate increases from their state and
local governments. However, these
types of requests are often denied.
After all, politicians would find
themselves in hot water if they
voted for higher natural gas fees.
So, if LDCs don't benefit from
rising natural gas prices, then who
does? The firms that benefit are
exploration & production
(E&P) companies. These firms
actually explore for natural gas
reserves and sell that gas
production. As such, E&P
companies usually profit handsomely
from natural gas prices increases.
Of course, there are literally
hundreds of E&P companies
available to investors, and not all
are equally good plays on rising gas
prices. A few of the key factors to consider when evaluating an E&P
stock include:
- A focus on natural gas.
Most E&Ps explore for some
combination of oil and gas. If
you feel that natural gas prices are
likely to see the most upside,
then you should focus your research efforts
primarily on natural gas
E&Ps.
- Political risks.
Natural gas is found all over
the world in developed, stable
countries like the U.S. and UK,
as well as in more volatile
places like Nigeria, Russia, and
the Middle East. Some countries
demand higher taxes and tariffs
from producers than others --
leading to lower profits.
- Size of reserves.
Natural gas exploration can be a
risky business, and even finds
that look promising at first can
come to naught. Some E&Ps
have large proven reserves.
Meanwhile, other riskier firms
rely exclusively on new
exploration to find reserves.
- Quality of Reserves/Cost.
Some reservoirs, especially more
mature, fully exploited
reserves, are expensive to
produce. Companies with lower
production costs see the best
margins and benefit most from
rising pricing.
In the table below, we provide
you with a long list of large
E&P firms that operate all over
the world. You may want to perform
further research on these companies,
since rising global demand bodes
well for investments in natural
gas related securities.
| Company
(Symbol) |
Company
(Symbol) |
| Devon
Energy (DVN) |
Enre
Acquisition (EAC) |
| Burlington
Resources (BR) |
St
Mary Land & Exploration
(SM) |
| Apache
(APA) |
W&T
Offshore (WTI) |
| Anadarko
Petroleum (APC) |
Stone
Energy (SGY) |
| Xto
Energy (XTO) |
Penn
Virginia (PVA) |
| Eog
Resources (EOG) |
Kcs
Energy (KCS) |
| Chesapeake
Energy (CHK) |
Comstock
Resources (CRK) |
| Noble
Energy (NBL) |
Bill
Barrett (BBG) |
| Pioneer
Natural Resources (PXD) |
Swift
Energy (SFY) |
| Ultra
Petroleum (UPL) |
Berry
Petroleum (BRY) |
| Murphy
Oil (MUR) |
Energy
Partners Ltd (EPL) |
| Newfield
Exploration (NFX) |
ATP
Oil & Gas (ATPG) |
| Southwestern
Energy (SWN) |
Delta
Petroleum (DPTR) |
| Quicksilver
Resources (KWK) |
Bois
D' Arc Energy (BDE) |
| Cimarex
Energy (XEC) |
Remington
Oil & Gas (REM) |
| Plains
Exploration & Product (PXP) |
Dorchester
Minerals Lp (DMLP) |
| Forest
Oil (FST) |
Carrizo
Oil & Gas (CRZO) |
| Range
Resources (RRC) |
Warren
Resources (WRES) |
| Denbury
Resources (DNR) |
Clayton
Williams Energy (CWEI) |
| Cabot
Oil & Gas (COG) |
Brigham
Exploration (BEXP) |
| Unit
(UNT) |
Goodrich
Petroleum (GDP) |
|