Published: January 25, 2008
On June 5, 1947 the
U.S. Secretary of State delivered a
commencement address in the famous
Harvard Yard. In a move that's
almost unthinkable in modern
politics, the Secretary chose this
venue in an effort not to
attract significant attention from
the press.
You see, the Secretary's words were
intended to kick off a major new
policy initiative for then-President
Harry S. Truman. But President
Truman suspected that the new policy
would be met with significant
initial resistance from the U.S.
public and several prominent members
of Congress.
Nonetheless, Secretary George Marshall's
low-key speech that day has gone
down in history as among the most
pivotal in American history.
Marshall stated that the U.S. should
do whatever necessary to assure
economic stability in Europe;
without economic stability there
could be no long-term sustainable
peace.
World War II devastated Europe's major
economies. The destruction of roads,
water pipes, and train networks
during the war years left Europe
with little functional
infrastructure. My own grandparents
and other relatives from their
generation were spread throughout
Europe at the time, and I'll never
forget the stories they told me of
how difficult life was in those
early post-war years. Major cities
and commercial centers, including
London and Berlin, were either
destroyed or badly damaged during
the war. Even worse, the chaotic
immediate post-war era encouraged
lawlessness and corruption; no
effective modern economy can exist
without the rule of law.
Truman, Marshall, and some prominent
congressional leaders were keen to
avoid a repeat of the chaotic era
that followed World War I. In those
years, widespread economic strife
and suffering helped pave the way
for the rise of fascism and, to some
extent, World War II.
Thus, thanks to the Marshall Plan,
between 1948 and 1951 aid from the
U.S. to Europe totaled $13 billion
-- a sum equivalent to more than
$105 billion in 2007 dollars. As a
result of this aid, as well as a
number of other important factors,
most European economies stabilized
and economic growth finally began to
accelerate. As you can imagine, the
Marshall Plan was not only good for
economic and political stability, it
was also a bonanza for businessmen
and investors with exposure to the
region.
Of course, Western
Europe is no longer the growth
dynamo is was in the late 1940s --
so investors are keen to look
elsewhere. Luckily, there is a
second sort of Marshall Plan
underway at this very moment --
billions of dollars of aid and
reconstruction money are pouring
into a single region of the world.
This "Marshall Plan 2" promises to
be every bit as profitable for investors as the rejuvenation of
post-war Europe. Ironically, this time the Marshall Plan is
being administered by the European Union (EU), and the
beneficiaries of that aid are the formerly communist states of
Central and Eastern Europe.
The parallels are undeniable. The economies in most Eastern
European countries were devastated in the late 1980s and early
1990s in much the same way as their Western European
counterparts were in the 1940s. Most had been propped up, to
some extent, by aid from the former Soviet Union. Law and order
was maintained by often-brutal police forces and militaries
backed up powerful central governments and a single communist
political party.
And even with all that aid, living standards were a fraction of
those that prevailed in Western Europe. For example, most
economists believe that in 1991, about one year after Germany
was re-unified, the formerly communist East Germany had a GDP
per capita of only 31% of the level that prevailed in West
Germany. By 1999, that ratio had risen to only about 55%.
The collapse of the Soviet system in the late 1980s and early
1990s also brought other non-economic problems. For example, the
end of central planning led to a lack of law and order and the
rise of organized crime in some states. This situation was not
unlike Western Europe in the 1940s.
But that's all changing. The formerly communist eastern states are
no longer centrally planned dinosaurs; most are now members of
the European Union. As part of EU accession, the line of
demarcation between east and west is becoming ever more blurred
-- citizens of Eastern Europe can now travel freely in the west.
And over time, labor restrictions are falling, allowing workers
in these nations to gain employment in other countries of the
EU.
And of course, the newest members of the EU are the direct
beneficiaries of a new sort of Marshall Plan -- EU aid funds
designed to help grow the economies of the east to levels more
in-line with those of Western Europe. Europe offers a number of
programs designed to help bridge that wealth gap. These include
near-total financing for infrastructure projects like roads and
modern water and sewage facilities. So-called "structural funds"
are also available for projects as diverse as workforce training
and rural development.
As
our chart shows, the preliminary EU budget for the period from
2007 to 2013 shows a steady growth in EU spending on cohesion
funds for emerging European nations. These cohesion funds are
designed to promote growth, jobs, and development in the EU.
This chart may look somewhat unbalanced, with Poland getting the
bulk of EU cohesion funding. But remember that Poland is the
largest of the new EU states in population terms, with close to
39 million people. Bulgaria, for example, has a population of
just 7.3 million and will receive over one-half billion euros
($730 million) in cohesion funds for 2007 alone and some 6.9
billion ($10.1 billion) over the 2007-2013 period. That's a
considerable sum -- far more on a per-capita basis than was
dispensed under the original Marshall Plan.
And all of the new EU States are expected to eventually join the
euro currency bloc. To adopt the euro, these states need to meet
certain stringent fiscal criteria covering factors such as
government spending, inflation, and accounting standards. So the
developed western states are not only offering aid, but also
building developed financial and political standards.
With all of these factors in mind, Eastern Europe offers an
attractive combination for investors. The region is growing at
rates similar to most other emerging markets around the world.
At the same time, due to the adoption of EU law and fiscal
discipline, these nations offer currency and political stability
of the sort typically found only in developed nations.
And EU aid certainly isn't the only reason to be interested in
Eastern Europe. Here are just a few additional reasons why the
region should see strong growth in the coming years . . .
Relatively Low Wages -- Many Eastern European
nations have become important centers for manufacturing and
other labor-intensive industries. The reason is simply that
skilled labor in the east is available at wages of 30-50% lower
than what the same laborers would cost in developed Western
Europe.
In addition, labor market restrictions are onerous in many Western
European markets including Germany and France -- there are high
minimum wages, powerful labor unions, and strict limits on
hiring and firing. Such restrictions are less apparent in the
east.
Firms based in Western Europe, the U.S., and elsewhere have
located factories in Eastern Europe to take advantage of lower
labor costs. For example, General Electric (NYSE: GE) has been a
huge investor in Hungary and now operates a total of 8 factories
there producing lighting equipment. Volkswagen, Hyundai, and
Peugeot have all opened major factories in Slovakia, producing
cars for both the western market and for delivery elsewhere in
the east. Meanwhile, Japanese carmaker Toyota (NYSE: TM) has
also gotten into the act by opening a factory with Peugeot in
the Czech Republic; the plant will focus solely on the
production of smaller cars for sale in the EU's newest member
states.
Growing
Markets -- Economic growth potential also attracts
foreign investment. My chart shows gross domestic product (GDP)
growth in the U.S. versus the average growth rate for Eastern
Europe as a whole. As you can see, it's clear that these foreign
economies are growing far more quickly than our developed
market.
All that economic growth spells a large, growing market of
consumers with growing disposable incomes. Sales of automobiles,
consumer electronics, and all sorts of apparel are already
picking up in these countries. Retailers from all over the world
have been keen to set up a presence in the region to take
advantage of that growth potential -- that spells more
investment for the region.
Favorable Tax Regimes -- Many governments in Eastern
Europe have set up favorable tax and regulatory policies to
attract investment. Some, such as Estonia and Slovakia, have
instituted a flat tax regime for corporations and individuals.
Other nations have set up special economic zones or highlighted
specific high-priority industries for favorable tax treatment.
Educated/Skilled Population -- Eastern Europe sports a
large, skilled workforce. One of the only positive legacies of
the communist era is a focus on universally good education --
most of the area's population can read and write, and a large
percentage of people speak foreign languages such as English.
That's an advantage most emerging markets simply don't have.
With these points in mind, emerging European economies look like a
solid long-term bet for investors. In fact, investors in the
region are already seeing strong growth. The major stock market
indices in the region have handily outpaced returns from the S&P
500 and other developed market indices over the past 1, 3, and
5-year periods.
The Bottom Line for Income
Investors
You may be wondering
what this little-known "Marshall Plan 2" has to do with income
investing. The answer is deceptively simple -- as this region
sees eye-popping growth thanks to aid from the EU, companies are
finding their coffers filled with profits. Often, these firms
are simply chomping at the bit to give this cash back to
investors in the form of dividends.
In
fact, on a recent search for firms
benefiting from the flood of aid to
Eastern Europe, we recently
pinpointed a telecom with a
mouth-watering yield of 14.0%. . .
Important
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