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You Can't Build a Strong Portfolio without BRICs
Published: July 21, 2008

Pop Quiz: What four countries account for over 50% of the world's population and nearly 30% of its total economic output, but represent just a tiny 6% sliver of its market capitalization?

If you read the title of our story, then you probably already know the answer: Brazil, Russia, India and China. However, what you may not realize is that this rapidly unwinding disconnect is still in the early stages.

With investors racking up an abundance of big winners in places like China, the prospecting for gains in these high-flying markets almost seems like a modern day gold rush. However, this boom is not based on speculation, but the most impressive economic development since the Industrial Revolution. And these emerging economic powerhouses will only gain strength through the first half of the 21st century -- providing unprecedented opportunities for investors.

The Cream of the Emerging Market Crop
While each emerging market offers its own unique set of opportunities for investors, the overriding consensus is that the four "BRIC" titans stand head-and-shoulders above all others. 

Brazil: Brazil has come a long way from the hyperinflation and currency devaluation that marred the country in the 1990s. President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva has knocked back inflation and created a trade surplus. He's also implemented disciplined fiscal reform that has GDP tracking towards a targeted +5% growth rate. Today, Brazil is the gem of Latin America, a leading exporter of iron ore and other natural resources and the world's 10th-largest economy.

Russia: Democratic reforms and deregulation have helped transform Russia from an inefficient bureaucracy into a global powerhouse that is slated to join the World Trade Organization. In recent years, disposable income has risen, corporate taxes have fallen, and fuel and industrial metals have been exported in huge quantities. With commodity prices surging and foreign direct investment (FDI) pouring in from abroad, Russia's economy is expected to grow at a +6% annualized clip over the next five years.

India: Once an agrarian-based society, India is rapidly modernizing and attracting an influx of new business, thanks in part to its highly skilled workforce. Over the past five years, economic growth has averaged a robust +9%, and the country's fiscal deficit has been cut in half. India now boasts of an annual GDP in excess of $1 trillion, one of only 12 countries worldwide to meet that level of production.

China: China has become the world's growth engine, importing nearly $1 trillion worth of goods last year and exporting far more than that. The country is a major manufacturing center, producing 70% of all toys, 50% of all shoes, and 33% of all televisions. And to feed its ravenous economy, it's also one of the largest consumers of oil, coal, steel and other resources. With one of the most powerful economic expansions ever seen, China is beginning to pull the entire global economy into its orbit.

The table below provides a brief snapshot of the economic outlook and recent market performance of each of these four countries.

Country Population GDP* 5-Yr. Market Growth  Annual GDP Growth: 5-Yr. Forecast Forward P/E
Brazil 189M $1,314B +788% +4.2% 10.4
Russia 142M $1,290B +401% +6.0% 7.0
India 1,120M $1,147B +367% +7.5% 11.9
China 1,321M $3,242B +180% +9.0% 12.8
* Source: Economist.com

Over a Billion Consumers Served
While the economic factoids above are impressive, they don't truly capture the investment thesis unfolding in these countries -- the story behind the numbers.

China is home to nearly one-quarter of the world's population, a staggering 1.3 billion people. Over 300 million of those are middle-class residents with rising disposable incomes and a growing appetite for Western goods. Yet for the most part, penetration rates for everyday products and services are only a fraction of what they are in more developed markets.

In the United States, there are roughly 80 vehicles for every 100 people. But in China, that metric stands at less than three cars for every 100 people. China consumes just one-third as much grain per person than the U.S., and uses only one-eighth as much energy.

So imagine what happens when 300 million consumers begin using even half as much electricity or buying half as many automobiles as their American counterparts. What happens when they begin buying more air conditioners, demanding better healthcare services, upgrading to wireless phones, and opening more bank and brokerage accounts?

Clearly, the buying power held by China's increasingly affluent consumer base represents a vast ocean of untapped potential.

Graduating from Emerging to Developed
The story is similar in India, which is also benefiting from another secular trend: outsourcing. Thanks to its highly educated and English-speaking workforce, companies around the world are looking to set up shop in cities like Mumbai. According to its Ministry of Finance, the service sector of the nation's economy saw heated growth of +13% in 2007.

And the unbelievable growth in India and China has challenged outdated infrastructure, but that is changing quickly. Both countries are now investing heavily on roads, bridges, airports, power distribution, telecom networks, and other projects. India is currently spending around $40 billion annually on infrastructure and is projected to double its outlay. China will be shelling out $200 billion over the next few years on railway systems alone and is planning to build almost 100 new airports. Naturally, this construction will continue to fuel unprecedented demand for things like concrete, steel, aluminum, and copper -- a boon for the companies that supply these industrial materials.

Underneath the frozen Russian turf lies roughly 20% of the world's oil supply and 35% of its natural gas, on tap to meet the world's soaring demand for energy.  Russia has also stockpiled the third-largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, and new president Dmitry Medvedev has made no secret of his plans to turn Moscow into a global financial hub. It's also worth noting that Russia sports hefty trade and budgetary surpluses, and disposable income is projected to double over the next four years.  Even though many Russian companies are forecast to deliver EPS growth north of +30%, Russian companies are among the most attractively valued of all foreign markets -- with a rock-bottom average P/E of just seven.

As mentioned above, Brazil is home to a plethora of natural resources, including oil and iron ore (used in steel production) -- but those are just the beginning. This vibrant land of 190 million people is also a leading producer of sugar, ethanol, and soybeans and makes great use of its forests and fisheries. Brazil has also just become the last of the four BRIC nations to garner a coveted "investment grade" debt rating, which should help lower borrowing costs for both corporate and government debt alike. It will also help attract billions in assets from institutional investors, as was the case with countries like Chile and Mexico following their credit upgrades.

Decades of growth on the Horizon
Within the next four decades, China is projected to supplant the United States as the world's largest economy. At that point, India, Brazil and Russia could overtake today's leaders and rank third, fifth, and seventh, respectively. Needless to say, this changing of the guard will spell massive earnings growth for BRIC companies -- and hefty profits for their shareholders.

Nathan Slaughter, editor of The ETF Authority, recently uncovered a Brazil-focused ETF that has returned +838% over the last five years. And in his most recent issue, Nathan offers up his favorite ETF pick that accesses all four of the BRIC countries. 
 
But best of all, Nathan and his research staff are currently working on an in-depth report that will show you the three best ways to profit from ETFs right now. 
This FREE special report will reveal how to use ETFs to access the world's hottest markets -- including Brazil, Russia, India and China  -- as well as how to earn double-digit yields and profit from the market's best-performing sectors.

All you need to do is sign up for Nathan's exclusive ETF "V.I.P. list" at no charge, and you'll receive this ETF report the instant it's completed -- just visit this link.


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