Published:
July 21, 2008
Pop Quiz: What four countries account for over 50% of the
world's population and nearly 30% of its total economic output,
but represent just a tiny 6% sliver of its market
capitalization?
If you read the title of our story, then you
probably already know the answer: Brazil, Russia, India
and China. However, what you may not realize is that this
rapidly unwinding disconnect is still in the early stages.
With investors racking up an abundance of big winners
in places like China, the prospecting for gains in these high-flying
markets almost seems like a modern day gold
rush. However, this boom is not based on speculation, but the
most impressive economic development since the Industrial
Revolution. And these emerging economic powerhouses will only gain strength through the
first half of the 21st century -- providing unprecedented opportunities for investors.
The Cream of the Emerging Market Crop
While each emerging market offers its own unique set of opportunities for
investors, the overriding consensus is that the four "BRIC" titans stand
head-and-shoulders above all others.
Brazil: Brazil has come a long way from the
hyperinflation and currency devaluation that marred the country
in the 1990s. President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva has knocked
back inflation and created a trade surplus.
He's also implemented disciplined fiscal
reform that has GDP tracking towards a targeted +5% growth rate.
Today, Brazil is the gem of Latin America, a leading exporter
of iron ore and other natural resources and the world's 10th-largest economy.
Russia: Democratic reforms and deregulation have
helped transform Russia from an inefficient bureaucracy into a
global powerhouse that is slated to join the World Trade
Organization. In recent years, disposable income has risen,
corporate taxes have fallen, and fuel and
industrial metals have been exported in huge quantities. With commodity prices surging and foreign
direct investment (FDI) pouring in from abroad, Russia's economy
is expected to grow at a +6% annualized clip over the next five
years.
India: Once an agrarian-based society, India is
rapidly modernizing and attracting an influx of new business,
thanks in part to its highly skilled workforce. Over the past
five years, economic growth has averaged a robust +9%, and the
country's fiscal deficit has been cut in half. India now boasts
of an annual GDP in excess of $1 trillion, one of only 12
countries worldwide to meet that level of production.
China: China has become the world's growth engine,
importing nearly $1 trillion worth of goods last year and
exporting far more than that. The country is a major
manufacturing center, producing 70% of all toys, 50% of all
shoes, and 33% of all televisions. And to feed its ravenous
economy, it's also one of the largest consumers of oil, coal,
steel and other resources. With one of the most powerful
economic expansions ever seen, China is beginning to pull the
entire global economy into its orbit.
The table below provides a brief snapshot of the economic
outlook and recent market performance of each of these four
countries.
|
Country |
Population |
GDP* |
5-Yr.
Market Growth |
Annual GDP Growth:
5-Yr. Forecast |
Forward P/E |
|
Brazil |
189M |
$1,314B |
+788% |
+4.2% |
10.4 |
|
Russia |
142M |
$1,290B |
+401% |
+6.0% |
7.0 |
|
India |
1,120M |
$1,147B |
+367% |
+7.5% |
11.9 |
|
China |
1,321M |
$3,242B |
+180% |
+9.0% |
12.8 |
|
* Source:
Economist.com
Over a Billion Consumers Served
While the economic factoids above
are impressive, they don't truly
capture the investment thesis
unfolding in these countries -- the
story behind the numbers.
China is home to nearly one-quarter
of the world's population, a
staggering 1.3 billion people. Over
300 million of those are
middle-class residents with rising
disposable incomes and a growing
appetite for Western goods. Yet for
the most part, penetration rates for
everyday products and services are
only a fraction of what they are in
more developed markets.
In the United States, there are
roughly 80 vehicles for every 100
people. But in China, that metric
stands at less than three cars for
every 100 people. China consumes
just one-third as much grain per
person than the U.S., and uses only
one-eighth as much energy.
So imagine what happens when 300
million consumers begin using even
half as much electricity or buying
half as many automobiles as their
American counterparts. What happens
when they begin buying more air
conditioners, demanding better
healthcare services, upgrading to
wireless phones, and opening more
bank and brokerage accounts?
Clearly, the buying power held by
China's increasingly affluent
consumer base represents a vast
ocean of untapped potential.
Graduating from Emerging to
Developed
The story is similar in India, which
is also benefiting from another
secular trend: outsourcing. Thanks
to its highly educated and
English-speaking workforce,
companies around the world are
looking to set up shop in cities
like Mumbai. According to its
Ministry of Finance, the service
sector of the nation's economy saw
heated growth of +13% in 2007.
And the unbelievable growth in India
and China has challenged outdated
infrastructure, but that is changing
quickly. Both countries are now
investing heavily on roads, bridges,
airports, power distribution,
telecom networks, and other
projects.
India is currently spending around
$40 billion annually on
infrastructure and is projected to
double its outlay. China will be
shelling out $200 billion over the
next few years on railway systems
alone and is planning to build
almost 100 new airports. Naturally,
this construction will continue to
fuel unprecedented demand for things
like concrete, steel, aluminum, and
copper -- a boon for the companies
that supply these industrial
materials.
Underneath the frozen Russian turf
lies roughly 20% of the world's oil
supply and 35% of its natural gas,
on tap to meet the world's soaring
demand for energy. Russia has
also stockpiled the third-largest
foreign exchange reserves in the
world, and new president Dmitry Medvedev has made no secret of his
plans to turn Moscow into a global
financial hub. It's also worth
noting that Russia sports hefty
trade and budgetary surpluses, and
disposable income is projected to
double over the next four years.
Even though many Russian companies
are forecast to deliver EPS
growth north of +30%, Russian
companies are among the most
attractively valued of all foreign
markets -- with a rock-bottom
average P/E of just seven.
As mentioned above, Brazil is home
to a plethora of natural resources,
including oil and iron ore (used in
steel production) -- but those are
just the beginning. This vibrant
land of 190 million people is also a
leading producer of sugar, ethanol,
and soybeans and makes great use of
its forests and fisheries. Brazil
has also just become the last of the
four BRIC nations to garner a
coveted "investment grade" debt
rating, which should help lower
borrowing costs for both corporate
and government debt alike. It will
also help attract billions in assets
from institutional investors, as was
the case with countries like Chile
and Mexico following their credit
upgrades.
Decades of growth on the Horizon
Within the next four decades, China
is projected to supplant the United
States as the world's largest
economy. At that point, India,
Brazil and Russia could overtake
today's leaders and rank third,
fifth, and seventh, respectively.
Needless to say, this changing of
the guard will spell massive
earnings growth for BRIC companies
-- and hefty profits for their
shareholders.
Nathan Slaughter, editor of
The ETF Authority,
recently
uncovered a Brazil-focused ETF that
has returned +838% over the last
five years. And in his most
recent issue, Nathan offers up his
favorite ETF pick that accesses all four of
the BRIC countries.
But best of all,
Nathan and his research staff are
currently working on an in-depth
report that will show you the three
best ways to profit from ETFs right
now. This
FREE special report will reveal how
to use ETFs to access the world's
hottest markets -- including Brazil,
Russia, India and China -- as
well as how to earn double-digit
yields and profit from the market's
best-performing sectors.
All you need to do is sign up for
Nathan's
exclusive ETF "V.I.P. list" at no
charge, and you'll receive this ETF report
the instant it's completed --
just
visit this link. |