| Published:
August 11, 2008
Most
investors have never even heard of Namibia, a country about half
the size of Alaska located on the southwestern coast of Africa.
Namibia has an arid climate and a population of just over 2
million, but it's also a nation of extraordinary natural
resource wealth -- including uranium, lead and diamonds.
Investors might be surprised to hear that the tiny Namibian
stock market is up more than +200% since the S&P 500 hit its
October 11, 2007 high. That's impressive -- particularly when you
consider the S&P 500 is down more than -15% since that date. Most
European markets are also lower since that time, some down even
more sharply than the U.S.
Of course, the Namibian market is tiny and obscure, but it's not
alone -- there are plenty of smaller foreign stock markets that
have handily outperformed the S&P 500 in recent years.
Located
half a world away in Asia is Vietnam, nation with a population
of 87 million and a per-capita gross domestic product of just
$2,600.
The communist government in Vietnam has been taking steps to
open up the nation's economy and encourage foreign investment
and trade. Now the economy is booming and so is the market.
Despite a drop in the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh Stock Index over
the past few months, it is still up close to +200% over the past
five years. That's equivalent to an annualized gain of nearly
+25%.
And consider the far larger and more developed countries of the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The list of GCC countries
includes Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the
United Arab Emirates. These countries, while far larger than
Namibia, are equally unknown to U.S. investors. But the
Bloomberg GCC 200 Index is up over +20% since the S&P 500's
October top.
These up-and-coming countries are known as "frontier markets."
While the terms are loosely defined, frontier markets tend to be
smaller and less developed than emerging markets like China and
India. But their growth potential is staggering. Many of the
frontier markets are showing annual economic growth of +7-14%
annually. As these economies grow and consumers become
wealthier, there are myriad opportunities for businesses to
expand.
This
growth is reflected in stock market performance -- as our chart
shows, the Merrill Lynch Frontier Markets Index has handily
outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five years, offering a
total return approaching +60% annualized.
Individual investors all too often shun frontier markets,
assuming these countries are a risky bet. Certainly, individual
frontier markets can be more volatile than their developed
market counterparts. But that doesn't mean putting a portion of
your portfolio into frontier markets is a risky proposition.
While they are volatile, frontier markets do not necessarily
move in the same direction as the S&P 500. For example, many
Middle Eastern and African frontier markets have performed well
over the past year thanks to heavy exposure to the energy and
natural resource industries.
The GCC nations alone are expected to see oil revenues top $600
billion for 2008. That's a flood of cash, especially when you
consider that the combined gross domestic product of the GCC countries stands at just a little more than $1
trillion.
With this in mind, holding a small weighting in frontier markets
as part of a larger portfolio offers investors an important measure of
diversification.
Moreover, institutional investors are always looking for the
next up-and-coming growth story. As a result, many funds have
discovered the growth potential of the frontier markets and are
allocating a portion of their portfolios there. While the
amounts allocated by each fund may be small in percentage terms,
they represent a large cash infusion for many frontier markets.
Consider that the majority of frontier markets have equity
market capitalizations under $10 billion -- even a small
investment can provide a powerful tailwind.
Until recently, investing in these markets was nearly impossible
for American investors. There are very few companies based in
frontier markets that also list their shares as
American Depositary
Receipts (ADRs) on the major U.S. exchanges. As a result, only
institutional players could really buy into these exciting
growth stories.
But that has changed. While some frontier markets are still
closed to foreigners, most welcome the investment. And a series
of U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been launched
over the past two months that finally give the individual
investor direct access to these exciting markets. |