Published:
December 8, 2008
What can a woman born in New
England in 1834 teach us about
investing in today's volatile
investing climate?
Plenty.
In today's issue, we'll take a brief
glimpse at the career of "The Witch
of Wall Street" and consider where
she might look for the best
investments in this downturn.
Hetty Green was one of the savviest
investors of all time. Her steely
resolve, unwavering discipline and
glacial patience are every bit as
important to market success today as
they were a hundred years ago.
And yet Hetty -- once the richest
woman in the world -- remains mostly
a footnote to financial history, a
curious bit of eccentric Wall Street
lore. That's too bad. There's much
to be learned from her.
Hetty's father, "Black Hawk"
Robinson, was a notoriously
hard-driving New Bedford whaling
magnate, and he imbued his daughter
with his business acumen and insight
into the darker side of human
nature. His was a not a rose-tinted,
sentimental perspective. Black Hawk
taught his daughter never to owe
anyone anything, not even a
kindness. Hetty wasn't merely tough,
she was ruthless. "The Witch of Wall
Street" once foreclosed on a church.
When she died in 1916, she was worth
$100 million, a fortune to rival the
richest men of her day.
Hetty
played rough in a rough game. The
unregulated markets -- where Hetty
was absolutely the only woman
-- were a dangerous environment for
the most seasoned and scurrilous
traders. Even the most cunning
operators flamed out from time to
time. Not Hetty. She routinely beat
the robber barons at their own game.
Addison Cammack, for example, was a
successful cotton trader who had
moved from Kentucky to expand his
fortune on Wall Street. Using his
connections, he learned that the
Louisville & Nashville Railroad was
about to cut its dividend. Armed
with this insider information, he
shorted the stock.
Short sellers borrow stock, then
sell it. When the price goes down,
they buy back the shares at the
reduced price and keep the
difference. They're still buying low
and selling high, only in reverse
order. The risk, however, is that
the stock will go up, not down, and
that a short seller will be forced
to buy back the shares for more than
he initially received for them.
Insider trading -- illegal today --
helped mitigate the downside risk.
And Cammack's tip was spot on: The
railroad did indeed cut its
dividend, and the stock plummeted.
All that remained was for Cammack to
buy back the shares and count his
money.
But there were no shares to be had
-- at any price. Hetty Green, who
had even better insider information
than Cammack, somehow figured out
what he was up to. So she cornered
the market by buying every share she
could find. Cammack was in a fix. It
was a textbook short squeeze.
Hetty let it leak that she had the
40,000 shares Cammack needed, but
she made him sweat for a few days
before granting him an audience.
When he arrived, she was merciless.
It was not a negotiation so much as
an execution. She demanded $10 a
share above her cost -- regardless
of the market price, which had
subsequently fallen fully 30 points.
Hetty decimated Cammack and pocketed
a $400,000 profit.
True story.
Here's the point that we should take
to heart in today's or indeed in any
market: You can sell on good
information, or you can buy on
better information.
And that, my friends, is precisely
where we are. That's the choice this
market offers.
As markets lose value, investors
lose patience. They forget the
fundamental reasoning behind their
stock purchases as fear displaces
reason. Investors see the value of
their portfolios eroding, and they
move to limit their losses by
selling. The price could drop to
zero, after all, and sometimes it
feels as if that's imminent, so
let's sell before it gets there.
It's an understandable emotional
response.
These investors, to be sure, are
selling on good -- that is, accurate
-- information.
In the short term, it makes sense.
In the long term, selling in down
markets only compounds the problem.
That's because there is better --
more prescient -- information out
there. Savvy operators like Hetty
Green are all too happy to buy when
everyone else is unloading at
ridiculously cheap prices. They know
the time will come when they get to
dictate the price, just as Hetty did
to Addison Cammack.
The trick is to ignore what the
price is and focus on what the price
will be. It's purely a question of
perspective. Hetty didn't care what
the price of Louisville & Nashville
Railroad was or what it did. It
didn't matter in the slightest. I
doubt she monitored the ticker in
her borrowed office in the Chemical
Bank. (She was far too miserly to
pay for an office.)
After all, Hetty knew what her stock
was going to be worth later. In this
market, many investors are selling
as fast as they can. But Hetty was
so sure of her position's value that
she made the only buyer wait to see
her!
Hetty Green, like every successful
investor before her and like every
successful investor to follow in her
footsteps, never sold the present.
She always bought the future.
That's the mental ammunition you
need. Remember why you invested in
the first place. Hetty herself
summed it up thus: "There is no
secret in fortune making. All you
have to do is buy cheap and sell
dear, act with thrift and shrewdness
and be persistent." Sell your stocks
when they're up, not when they're
down.
Where Would Hetty Invest Today?
There are a lot of areas in the
current market where I think Hetty
Green would have seen attractive
buys. But I think she'd have been
most drawn to the oil patch.
The worldwide economic downturn has
international markets worried that
people are going to use less oil.
Crude has fallen dramatically since
reaching its July 11 high of
$147.27. In fact, crude closed at
$56.16 a barrel on Nov.12, the
lowest settlement since late January
2007.
The International Energy Agency (IEA),
which monitors energy policy and
prices in 28 developed countries, is
expected to cut its global demand
estimate. The most recent U.S.
government inventories reports show
stockpiles of crude and gasoline are
rising. AAA reports the average
national price for a gallon of
gasoline is $2.09, more than $2.00
lower than its record of $4.11 July
17. All of this is adding even more
chaos to an extremely volatile
market.
How have the oil companies fared in
this environment? Oil hit its peak
July 11, when the Dow was at 11,100.
The blue chips have since given back
-25%, and oil companies, as whole,
have declined some -71%.
|
Oil Company |
YTD Return |
|
Exxon Mobil (XOM) |
-24.6% |
|
Chevron (CVX) |
-26.3% |
|
BP (BP) |
-42.7% |
|
Conoco Phillips (COP) |
-42.9% |
|
Anadarko (APC) |
-46.1% |
|
Diamond Offshore (DO) |
-48.9% |
|
Murphy Oil (MUR) |
-50.0% |
|
Noble (NE) |
-53.1% |
|
Schlumberger (SLB) |
-53.2% |
|
Halliburton (HAL) |
-55.0% |
|
Marathon Oil (MRO) |
-60.1% |
This tumultuous overreaction --
and certainly these share prices -- would have
brought a rare smile to Hetty's otherwise severe
visage. She would point out that the world needs
oil every bit as much as Addison Cammack needed
Louisville & Nashville stock.
Extremely high prices don't last forever, nor do
exceedingly low prices. The reality is generally
somewhere closer to the middle, and prices tend
to regress to the mean. Eventually the world
will have to pay for oil, perhaps not $150 a
barrel, but certainly not $50 a barrel, either.
It's only a matter of time until the world's oil
companies' market valuations are right-sized.
The world currently uses 85.6 million barrels of
oil a day, or some 30 billion barrels a year,
according to the International Energy Agency.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pegs
global economic growth at +3.7% this year and
+2.2% in 2009. Anything less than +3% is
considered recessionary, though the IMF
anticipates a late-2009 recovery.
OPEC, which controls a majority of global
production, seeks a target price of between $70
and $90 a barrel for its crude. The IEA sees
$80. The IMF projects a crude price of $69 a
barrel for 2009. The U.S. government puts the
price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude
at $63.50.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration
estimates worldwide total proven oil reserves at
about 1.3 trillion barrels of crude.
This tells us that the world has an insatiable
appetite for a commodity that it has plenty of
and that it can still afford to pay for. And,
frankly, that's all we need to know. All the
talk about peak oil and export quotas is just
something to talk about on TV. It's meaningless.
Oil is a commodity, and we're going to use it
regardless of who produces it or who sells it.
The current downturn, both in stocks and in
crude, is not the end of the world as we know
it, it's merely a blip on the radar. And you
need look only at the futures market to prove
this point conclusively. The November 2010 price
is $73.67.
Sure, the IEA recently cut its demand target.
Whoa, scary, right? No. It is the policy of
Investor Update not to look at the numbers but
to look behind the numbers. The IEA said demand
would soften by 700,000 barrels. Well, big deal.
Don't confuse something that sounds like a lot
with something that actually is a lot. The
numbers are good information, but the numbers in
context are far better information. The bottom
line: Global demand is 85 million barrels a day
-- 700,000 is less than 1% of that.
So if crude prices fell -1% after news like
that, you might not expect a rebound until
demand increased. But that's not what happened
in the market. What happened in the market has
exactly zero correlation to reality, it's all
based on panic. But eventually someone is going
to have to pay the piper, both for the crude and
the companies that produce it.
The good information says oil prices are down
and that oil companies are worth less as a
result. The better information tells us this is
temporary. The smart money is buying oil, not
selling.
When this chapter of financial history is
written, do you want to be Addison Cammack, or
do you want to be Hetty Green?
You Can Buy Something Hetty Green Never Could
Investing in the "awl bidness" -- as it's known
in Texas -- normally would require buying at
least a dozen of its biggest players, such as
the names in the chart above. Hetty could have
done this with no trouble, and so could you.
But there is a far easier way. It's an option
you have that Hetty, despite her vast wealth,
never did. The secret is the exchange-traded
fund (ETF), a basket of securities that acts
like a mutual fund but is traded like a stock.
You place one trade and add the entire industry
to your portfolio.
We've identified the best oil-centered ETF -- a
supercharged little dervish that will double the
oil industry's return. That way, when companies
like Chevron, Marathon and Halliburton -- to
name three -- experience the industry's
inevitable rebound, you're prepared to profit,
and at twice the rate of most of stockholders.
To get the name of this oil ETF and learn how to
use ETFs to play other sectors,
read our report here.
Many happy returns! |