Published:
January 30, 2008
As the name implies, high-yield
bonds are debt securities that offer
extremely generous interest rates.
The downside, of course, is that
these bonds are issued by companies
with less than stellar credit
ratings. So to capture that higher
yield, investors must also assume a
higher degree of risk.
That potential headache has
frightened many investors away from
the high-yield sector. However, at
times this asset class can provide
double-digit returns that rival
those in the equity markets, with
significantly less volatility -- and
we could be headed for one of those
periods.
Don't Believe Everything You've
Heard
We all know that corporate bonds are
essentially "IOU" securities issued
to raise capital. That being the
case, principal and interest
payments are only as safe as the
company that stands behind it.
Fortunately, rating agencies like
Moody's (NYSE: MCO) exist to help
sort through the gaggle of bonds
available. These companies evaluate
each issuer's creditworthiness
through a rigorous examination of
its balance sheet, cash flow
visibility and overall financial
stability. The companies that score
highest are deemed to be worthy of
"investment grade" status ("Baa" or
higher), while those with a few
question marks are assigned ratings
that fall on the lower rungs of the
credit quality ladder.
But don't make the mistake of
thinking all high-yield bonds are
"junk." The reputation of this group
was tainted years ago with the
high-profile securities fraud
conviction of Michael Milken, who
was instrumental in bringing these
securities to prominence as a
funding vehicle for hostile
corporate takeovers and leveraged
buyouts (LBOs).
The high-yield bond market has
evolved since then and is quite
appealing today, thanks to several
factors:
Growing Global Market:
According to Dealogic, global
high-yield debt issuance totaled
more than a quarter-trillion dollars
in 2007, with volume reaching a
record $100 billion in the second
quarter alone. Much of that came
from overseas markets, which now
account for roughly half of new
high-yield issuance.
Quality Issuers: While it's
true that some high-yield debt
really is junk, many companies with
below-investment-grade credit
ratings are actually on sound
financial footing and generate hefty
cash flows. High-yield bond issuers
include venerable firms like General
Motors (NYSE: GM), Hilton Hotels and
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM). These three
companies are just a small sample of
the numerous companies from a
variety of industries issuing
high-yield debt.
Not Rate Sensitive:
High-yield bonds typically have low
durations and aren't particularly
sensitive to interest rate
fluctuations. Much like stocks,
high-yield bond returns are driven
more by the overall state of the
economy -- which influences the
ability of borrowers to meet their
payment obligations. As a result,
these bonds can actually gain ground
in a rising rate environment, while
others tend to struggle. This low
correlation makes the high-yield
sector a powerful diversification
tool.
Capital Appreciation Potential:
High-yield bonds have delivered
average annual returns of nearly
+10% over the past five years -- not
all of those gains have come from
interest payments. It's not uncommon
for these bonds to trade at steep
discounts to their par value, paving
the way for significant gains if the
financial outlooks for the
underlying companies show signs of
improvement. For example, Standard &
Poor's upgraded 193 high-yield
issuers in 2005, boosting the value
of more than $200 billion worth of
debt.
The Sky is Not Falling
Having said all this, there is still
no sugar coating the biggest risk
faced by high-yield bond investors:
the dreaded default. For some reason
or another a company may deteriorate
and won't be able to meet certain
loan covenants or come up with the
cash to cover its payments.
While this risk is certainly real,
it is often overstated and more than
compensated for by the extra yield.
Over the past decade, default rates
for high-yield bonds have been as
high as 11% in extreme conditions,
but have generally averaged less
than half of that. At the moment,
few companies are having trouble
making payments, even as the economy
shows signs of deceleration. In
fact, at the end of December 2007
default rates sunk to around 0.9% --
the lowest rate in nearly 30 years.
As the economy stalls and access to
corporate credit tightens, that
figure will quite likely rise in the
months ahead. Moody's is forecasting
default rates to rise above 4.2%
this year. Still, that is well below
the long-term historic average of
4.7%. Also, keep in mind that
bondholders have a senior claim on
assets over stockholders in the
event of bankruptcy. Recovery rates
on defaulted bonds have been as high
as 60% in recent months -- well
above the long-term norm.
In short, most high-yield
bondholders are raking in hefty
yields with little interruption.
Meanwhile, improved corporate
profitability and cash flows have
allowed many domestic companies to
de-leverage their balance sheet in
recent years, which should help
alleviate default pressure in leaner
operating conditions.
More Bang for the Buck
Fortunately, high-yield investors
are well compensated for this higher
default risk. According to the Bond
Market Association, the yield spread
(or "risk premium") between
high-yield bonds and Treasury
securities of comparable maturity
has run between 300 and 400 basis
points throughout most of the past
two decades.
In other words, if a 10-Year
Treasury Bond offered a yield of
4%, then a corresponding high-yield
bond might get you a much juicier
payout of 7-8%. The subprime
meltdown and talk of a possible
recession has led to a major repricing in the credit markets.
Many investors have suddenly lost
their appetite for risk and are now
demanding more to take it -- which
has widened the spread considerably.
In fact, investors can now rake in
yields more than six hundred basis
points (6.3%) above the rate on
corresponding Treasuries. That is
more than double the 2.7%
differential from this past June and
marks the highest interest rate
spread since 2000.
Looking Ahead
Over the past 15 years, the overall
credit quality of corporate America
has been trending lower. In 1992,
nearly three-fourths (72%) of all
debt issuers were given investment
grade ratings by Standard & Poor's
-- today, that percentage stands at
just 50%. Meanwhile, the number of
speculative "Caa"-rated issuers has
more than tripled. As a result, the
median credit rating of all
companies has slipped.
This pronounced shift (which in part
has resulted from stock buybacks and
other deliberate actions) presents
both opportunities and challenges.
On one hand, it has increased the
supply of high-yield debt, lifted
yields and widened spreads. However,
it also means that a recession could
see default rates spike well into
the double-digits.
But even that would create
opportunity. During the recession of
1990, default rates shot up to
nearly 8%. But when conditions
improved the following year,
high-yield bonds delivered a
whopping gain of +44% and went on to
produce returns north of +15% in
each of the next two years.
Now, we aren't suggesting that exact
same scenario will play out again.
But, it's clear that high-yield
bonds can be highly profitable
investments when yield spreads have
widened and the economy begins to
pick up steam. We haven't reached
that recovery stage just yet, but
it's never too early to begin
planning.
And what better way
to take advantage of this potential
than with a solid ETF or closed-end
fund? After all, when there is more
risk than usual, as is the case with
high-yield bonds, it pays to
diversify. But creating a personal
portfolio of dozens of bonds can be
a costly and time-consuming
investment. Thankfully, funds offer
investors a slice of this lucrative
market without the headaches of
buying individual bonds.
And in the latest issue of
StreetAuthority's newsletter,
The ETF Authority, Editor
Nathan Slaughter lists
four of the best high-yield bond
funds available, and profiles his
two favorites extensively. Both of
these yield above 9.0% and stand to
have considerable capital gains as
the economy regains its footing. Also included in the
issue is
Nathan's "Fund of the Month".
This month's ETF follows the
recommendations of one of Wall
Street's most well-known research
companies. In historical testing,
the fund would have returned
+25,356% over the last 40 years! To
learn more about
The ETF Authority and these
special investment opportunities, please
visit this link. |