Published:
November 3, 2008
As stock prices have fallen
dramatically this year, one critical barometer of the market has
been rising. Dividend yields are at historic highs -- only two
stocks in the S&P 500 showed yields above 6% near the height of last
year's rally; that number now stands at 48. And individual stocks
and funds have seen dramatic gains in their yields -- one year ago
the Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (NYSE: AOD) yielded 10.8%;
today it sits at 27.2%.
There aren't many truly ironclad rules on Wall Street, but the
relationship between yield and price is unbreakable. They always
move in opposite directions. When price falls, yield rises --
always, period, amen.
For instance, if a $100 stock pays a $5 dividend, then its owner
receives a nice 5% yield. But if that same stock drops to $50, its
dividend yield rises to 10%. And right now, there are literally
hundreds of stocks in this exact situation. The Dow and S&P are each
off about -35% on the year, and dozens of dividend-paying companies
have seen panicky traders push their shares to fire-sale prices --
lifting yields to historic marks. Smart investors are locking in
those high yields right now.
How to Calculate Your Dividend Yield
Let's review what it means to lock in a yield, because most
investors assume that yields change. And, indeed, they do. They rise
every time a firm's share price falls, and vice versa. But the price
you paid for a stock doesn't move -- it's locked in. Because of
this, you can use depressed share prices to lock in some
mouth-watering yields.
Take our previous example -- a $50 stock that is yielding 10% based
on a $5 dividend. Even though shareholders all receive the same
payments each year, the investor who bought their shares at $100 is
earning only 5% on what they invested -- and the investor who bought
at $75 is seeing a 6.7% return on their money. But those who bought
at $50 can continue enjoying 10% yields on their original investment
-- even as the share price rises, decreasing the yield.
While this concept is simple to follow, what most often gets
overlooked is how large an impact it can have on your portfolio.
Let's examine the performance of a company with a long history of
rewarding shareholders with a rich dividend stream: Altria (NYSE:
MO), the company many investors knew for years as Philip Morris.
Here are its actual dividend payouts from 2000 through the end of
2006:
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As you can see,
investors have been showered with
rising dividends for years. But
those smart enough to buy in when
the stock was trading at an
abnormally low share price were able
to lock in a higher yield -- a yield
they're still enjoying today.
Let's assume you bought 1,000 shares
of MO on Feb. 11, 2000 -- a roughly
five-year low. At a price of $19.06
a share, dividends totaling $2.02 in
2000 worked out to a 10.6% dividend
yield.
In 2001, MO paid $2.22 in dividends,
and investors who bought at $19
earned 11.6% in dividends on their
investment. The next year, 2002 saw
a 12.8% dividend payout, which rose
to 13.9% in 2003. By the end of
2006, the shares were yielding 17.4%
based on your original purchase
price. An investor who bought at
$19.06 would have collected a total
$17.94 in dividends, a +94.1% return
based on dividends alone.
Now
that's a great investment... but
not everyone fared so well. Why?
Because as dividends rose, so did
the share price. When prices go up,
yield goes down. So investors who
bought at a higher share price
locked themselves in to a lower
yield.
Our table below shows how dramatic a
difference buying near a high can
make on your yields compared to
using a market sell-off to lock in
above-average yields. Investors who
bought MO just over a year later --
well after the shares had rebounded
from their low -- locked themselves
into significantly lower yields.
|
Dividend yields as a percentage of original
investment were
11.8 percentage points
higher for
investors buying Altria at its low (Feb. 11, 2000)
vs. its high (May 31, 2002). |
|
|
Yield for investment made 2/11/00 |
Yield for investment made 5/31/02 |
|
Purchase Date |
10.6% |
4.3% |
|
2001 |
11.6% |
N/A |
|
2002 |
12.8% |
N/A |
|
2003 |
13.9% |
4.6% |
|
2004 |
14.8% |
4.9% |
|
2005 |
16.1% |
5.3% |
|
2006 |
17.4% |
5.6% |
|
In
other words, even though the
investor who bought at the low in
2000 is getting the exact same
dividend payment per share as the
investor who bought at the high in
2002, they are earning drastically
different yields on their
investments because they locked in
at different prices.
Again, the lower the buy price, the
higher the yield. The higher the buy
price, the lower the yield. In the
end, that added up to a huge
difference: Investors who bought at
$19 in 2000 were earning 17.4% in
2006, while investors who bought in
2002 earned only 5.6%.
That's the awesome power of locking
in a yield for the long term at
depressed shares prices. And that's
where we are in the current market.
Many are fearful of this volatile
market -- and caution is warranted.
But If you want to earn a rich yield
and collect a positively gargantuan
capital gain, the time to buy is
now.
These Bargains Won't Last
Not to be overly dramatic, but
you're running out of time. The
markets won't stay at these
depressed levels for long -- there's
just too much value to be had at too
cheap a price. Investors have tons
of cash on the sidelines, and many
are waiting for Wall Street's dark
mood to lift. It won't take long for some of these
yield opportunities to disappear.
Nick Lanyi, editor of
High-Yield International,
has been scouring the globe for its
best dividend payers. His premium
newsletter is full of yields that
have been juiced thanks to the
global sell-off. While everyone else
is stymied by fear, Nick's readers
are taking advantage of this rare
buying opportunity. Some checks have
already been cut.
Follow this link to make sure
your name is on one of them. |