Published:
February 25, 2008
In
1962, a successful young fund
manager began buying a sleepy New
England textile firm, even though
the U.S. textile industry was in a
decline -- losing out to cheaper
foreign competition. A small textile
company with a few plants in
Massachusetts certainly showed
little growth potential or future,
and hardly sounds like the ideal
launch pad for the man that would
become the world's most successful
investor.
But that manager was 32-year-old
Warren Buffett, and the textile
manufacturer was Berkshire Hathaway
(NYSE: BRK-A). By 1965, Buffett had taken total
control of the company and replaced
management. You see, Buffett
wasn't interested in the textile
business itself, but was instead
interested in the firm's cash. Berkshire generated copious
free cash flow and had plants,
equipment and land that could be
liquidated to provide even more
cash.
With this in mind, Buffett dissolved
his investment partnership and began
to invest Berkshire's excess cash
flows, offering his investors a
stake in Berkshire in lieu of their
previous fund holdings. Investors
who took that deal were amply
rewarded. Buffett's returns have
been nothing short of legendary,
averaging nearly +22% annually since
he took over Berkshire's reins.
As
our chart illustrates, $10,000
invested in Berkshire in the 1960s
would be worth more than $36 million
today against less than $700,000 for
the same sum invested in the S&P
500. That's more than a +361,000%
gain.
Buffett's Philosophy
Berkshire's performance is proof of
the wisdom and value of Buffett's
approach. Not surprisingly, dozens
of books have been written on the
subject, probing virtually every
aspect of the Oracle's biography and
all of his legendary investment
decisions. Of course, it's
impossible to neatly distill all of
his wisdom into any book or article.
But Buffett's investing methodology
is far from a total mystery. Each
year, Buffett pens a lengthy letter
to shareholders for the firm's
annual report; these letters explain
the rationale for Berkshire's
investments and have contained
countless pearls of investing wisdom
over the years. And of course,
Berkshire is a publicly traded
company; the firm must
disclose Buffett's investments.
These too offer a look at the types
of stocks that interest Buffett.
Finally, Buffett has made no
secret of the people that have
influenced his style, including Benjamin
Graham, the father of value
investing.
With these ideas in mind, we decided
to dive into Buffett's investing
style and let you know exactly what
he looks for in an investment -- and
how he led Berkshire to a +361,000%
gain. . .
Intrinsic Value and Margin of
Safety -- Margin of safety and
intrinsic value are concepts Buffett
learned under Graham's tutelage.
Intrinsic value refers to the total
value of a firm's assets and current
and future earnings. Clearly,
calculating intrinsic value is not
an entirely straightforward process
and different analysts will arrive
at very different conclusions as to
a firm's true value.
Buffett looks for the potential for growth,
which means looking beyond tangible
goods. For example,
many key Berkshire businesses --
notably insurance -- can't really be
valued based on physical assets
alone.
Buffett, like Graham, looks for
companies trading at around a -25%
discount to his calculation of their
value. The margin of safety goes
back to Buffett's core belief that
he'll only invest in companies when
he feels assured of a relatively
low-risk return on his investment.
Easy to Understand Businesses
-- Buffett has always preferred to
invest in companies and industries
he understands well. After all, if
you can't understand how a business
makes money and what sort of markets
it's involved in, how can you
possibly understand its true value?
A quick glance at the list of
companies Buffett has purchased over
the years shows that most are in
straightforward industries --
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), See's Candies,
and Dairy Queen are some classic
examples.
But don't assume that Buffett is
just some investing dinosaur who
invests in a bunch of readily
understood consumer stocks. Perhaps
Berkshire's most important single
industry group is insurance; the
company owns GEICO and General Re
and remains one of the world's
largest insurers. You may think that
insurance is a rather complicated
business, but it too fits with
Buffett's investing mantra. Buffett
spent years studying the insurance
industry so he understands it better
than most insurance executives.
Economic Moats -- Buffett has
alluded to the concept of an
economic moat on several occasions
in his annual letters to
shareholders.
Medieval castles often had moats --
a water-filled canal encircling the
castle. This water made it tougher
to lay siege to the castle.
Attackers would have to swim or
otherwise cross the moat before
getting near the castle's walls;
this slowed the would-be conquerors
down and gave the castle inhabitants
time to defend themselves.
In today's highly competitive
economy, companies are not unlike
medieval castles. A successful
company that manages to earn sizable
profits will undoubtedly attract
competitors. If
those competitors are successful in
gaining market share, then they'll
erode the profitability of the
original business.
The most successful firms are those
that boast some sort of sustainable
competitive advantage -- an
advantage that's difficult to copy
or emulate. These firms are able to
maintain their success despite the
inevitable attacks from competitors.
Profitability and Return on
Equity -- If there's one single
financial statistic that's more
often associated with Buffett than
any other, it's
return-on-equity (ROE).
The calculation of ROE is simple,
and it's quoted on just about every
financial website. Simply divide a
company's net income -- the sum
remaining after all expenses have
been met -- by shareholder's equity.
This ratio measures how much profit
a company produces relative to
shareholders' investment in the
firm. In other words, ROE answers
one critical question: how much
money does a firm make for its
owners?
But don't assume that you can just
run a screen for stocks with very
high ROE and invest like Buffett.
You must look for a stable or rising
ROE over time. If a company has a
particularly strong year, the net
income figure can be inflated and
that can cause ROE to look very big.
Such one or two-year blips have a
tendency to fade quickly once the
business environment becomes less
favorable. |