Published:
October 31, 2007
The
correct answer is
(A.) Travelzoo (TZOO)
To understand how a
stock can rise over +1,000% due to
short sellers, it might be helpful
to review the basics of a short
sale. Simply put, investors who are
"long" expect a stock to rise over
time, while those who are "short"
predict that it will drop. To cash
in on this decline, the process is
rather simple:
1.) Borrow shares from a
broker, and sell them on the open
market.
2.) Wait for the share price
to fall.
3.) Buy the shares back at the
lower price to return to the broker
and close out the position.
If the stock price drops from, say,
$30 per share to $20, then you
pocket an easy $10 gain. Of course,
if the stock moves up and you
finally throw in the towel at $40
per share, then you will lose $10
per share.
But think of the big picture. If
other short sellers like you decide
to get out at the same time, then
all those buy orders (remember, you
must buy the stock back to close out
the position) will push the shares
even higher. At that point, any
remaining short sellers will likely
get nervous and decide to bail out
as well, pushing the shares even
higher. This process, which can
quickly feed on itself, is known as
a "short squeeze" -- and it can lead
to huge gains for the stock in a
short period of time.
That's precisely what happened to
Travelzoo, a small online travel
specialist, in 2004. Traders
had a very bearish outlook for the
company, and nearly all of the
firm's available shares were sold
short. However, within a few months
the stock began moving, climbing
from below $10 to a new record high
of $15. As short sellers rushed to
cover their short positions, the
stock began to skyrocket. That, of
course, attracted buying interest
from the momentum-investing crowd,
which only further accelerated the
gains. When the dust finally
settled, TZOO had rallied more than
+1,000% to reach a peak of roughly
$100 per share.
It takes strong nerves to climb into
a company that everyone else is
bearish on. And while situations
like Travelzoo don't exactly happen
every day, there is certainly no
shortage of companies that confound
the shorts and rise instead of fall.
Even when a rapid short squeeze
doesn't materialize, it can still be
advantageous to invest in a quality
company that is a target for short
sellers. Why? Because at its core,
investing is always a game of supply
and demand. Shares that are sold
short represent a massive block of
pent-up future demand -- these
shares will all be bought back
eventually, it's just a matter of
time. And for a small, thinly-traded
company like Travelzoo, sometimes
all it takes is a spark to ignite
the powder keg.
Nathan Slaughter, editor of
StreetAuthority's premium value
investing newsletter
Half-Priced Stocks, set out
in search of viable short-squeeze
candidates -- more "powder kegs" --
in a recent issue. Nathan evaluated
the short interest, short interest
ratios, fundamentals, and valuations
of a multitude of stocks, and found
nine exciting companies that could
be the next to blow, thanks to a
short squeeze. He also provided an
in-depth analysis of two of his
favorite candidates -- including one
with a price appreciation potential
of +32%. To see Nathan's list and to
learn more about the
Half-Priced Stocks
newsletter, please
visit this link.
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