Published:
January 31, 2008
The
correct answer is
(E.) Microsoft
(MSFT)That's right,
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) has
returned nearly +4,000% over the
last 17 years, even though standard
valuation techniques said to stay away from the software
giant.
Microsoft is not an isolated
incident either. Video game retailer
GameStop (NYSE: GME) has changed
hands at an average P/E of 31 over
the past five years -- pricey in the
eyes of many, but it has delivered
sizzling gains of +1,130%.
Performance like this isn't typical
of course, but there is at least one
common denominator between these two
exceptional companies that will help
investors understand this
interesting value investing
conundrum. The answer lies in the
firm's fair value. In both examples,
the firms' fair value exploded
alongside their share price --
meaning even as the prices rose,
their intrinsic worth did as well.
Spotting the next Microsoft is no
easy task. The challenge is how to
determine whether a stock has the
fundamentals in place to support its
rising share price or if the
increase is a result of "momentum"
investing -- in
which investors simply chase returns
and pile onto winners, a dangerous
game. After all,
those who blindly pay $40 for a
stock today just because it was
worth $30 yesterday might not be
fortunate enough to find someone
else willing to pay $50 for it
tomorrow. Just ask someone who paid
more than $900 (split-adjusted)
for Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA) back in
2000, or $800 for JDS Uniphase
(Nasdaq: JDSU), or $3,000 for
Internet Capital Group (Nasdaq: ICGE).
For a time, these all seemed to be
can't-miss propositions, but
ultimately none had the cash flows
to back up their valuations -- and
all three came crashing back to
Earth, surrendering more than 99% of
their market capitalization.
Prudent investors look to avoid
this by looking past the basic
financial ratios available to
everyone with an Internet connection
and drilling deep into the core
fundamentals of the business itself
to find its actual true worth.
It takes time to find these rare
gems, but that's what
Half-Priced Stocks editor
Nathan Slaughter and his team at
StreetAuthority
did. In the process they
discovered a future telecom giant
with a trailing one-year return of +40%
and the potential to go another
+30% until reaching its true worth. And this company is just one
of seven big gainers listed in this month's issue
that have the fundamentals to keep
driving their impressive returns. To
learn the names of these stocks, and
to learn more about the
Half-Priced Stocks
newsletter, please
visit this link.
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