Published:
April 15, 2009
The
correct answer is
(B.) Small-cap value stocks.
Investors who purchased a
diversified basket of large-cap
growth stocks -- stocks with high
market capitalization and a high
price-to-book ratio -- would have
earned an average annualized return
of about +8.8% between June 1926 and
the end of February this year.
Meanwhile, small-cap value investors
earned an average annualized return
nearly +5% higher.
If that margin sounds too small to
be important, think again -- just
$100 invested in small-cap value
stocks back in 1926 would be worth
nearly $2.8 million today compared
to just $104,000 for large-cap
growth names. And the ability of
small-cap value stocks to outperform
is still prevalent today.
Of course, the volatility of returns
for small-caps is higher than for
large caps -- some of this excess
return can be explained by the fact
that investors are taking on more
risk buying small caps. But the risk
isn't as high as one might expect.
Since 1979, the S&P 500 has
experienced a total of six down
years. In all but one of those
years, the Dow Jones Wilshire
Small-Cap Value Index has
outperformed the broader market. The
average outperformance: +9.3%.
Small caps even offered investors a
shot at impressive gains in 2008,
the worst year for the S&P 500 since
the 1930s. Consider that more than
100 of the 600 stocks in the S&P 600
Small-Cap Index actually traded
higher last year compared to just 25
stocks within the S&P 500. The
average gain for S&P 600 stocks that
traded higher was more than +15%,
not bad for the worst year since the
Great Depression.
The obvious question is why would
small-cap value stocks so handily
outperform all other asset classes?
There is no single, correct answer,
but some of the more popular
explanations include the idea that
market valuations for small caps are
less efficient, that the takeover
potential (and thus short-term gain
potential) is higher, and that the
smaller firms often compete in
industries where there is more room
to grow.
With these points in mind, now might
be a good time to prospect for
small-cap value stocks. The group
offers plenty of opportunity for
strong gains even if the market
remains weak. And when the market
does recover, history suggests that
these plays will handily outperform
the major averages.
That's why StreetAuthority editor
Paul Tracy profiles two promising
plays in the small-cap value
category in his latest issue of the
Market Advisor newsletter. Paul's
picks are solid players in their
respective industries, sport healthy
projected EPS growth rates, and are
well positioned to take advantage of
increased demand. At less than $30 a
share, these stocks are two you
can't afford to ignore. To learn
their names, and to learn more about
the
Market Advisor newsletter,
please visit this link.
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