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Which of these health care companies
delivered an annualized +24.5%, about
twice the average historical return of
the S&P, in the past 10 years, and is
poised to add billions more to its
bottom line if Washington moves more
people onto private insurance? A.)
Continucare CP (CNU)
B.) Neostem Inc. (NBS)
C.) Mednax (MD)
D.) DaVita (DVA)
E.) MDS Inc. (MDZ) |
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Published: August 7, 2009
The
correct answer is
(D.) DaVita (DVA)Dialysis (a
chemical process that removes
unwanted substances from blood) is
the only part of the health-care
system that operates under a
"single-payer" system -- the
government pays for almost all of
the treatments. In 1972, the federal
government made a unique change to
Medicare. Kidney failure diagnoses
made any patient eligible for
Medicare coverage of prescribed
treatments, regardless of age. But
if the patient has employer-provided
health coverage, Medicare doesn't
kick in as the primary payer until
after the first 30 months.
And because about 11.5% of adults
older than 20 -- some 23 million
people -- have some type of chronic
kidney disease and 355,000 are on
dialysis, it's a strong business
that will see more patients as the
population ages.
Medicare pays about $235 per
treatment -- this, admittedly, is a
simplification of a very complex
reimbursement schedule -- but
private insurance pays a multiple of
that, perhaps as much as five or
even ten times. Dialysis providers
actually make their profit from
patients covered by private
insurance, about 35% of the total.
There's a steady supply of new
patients: In 2006, for example,
110,854 people across the country
started dialysis. These are the
profitable cases that drive the
industry's profits, before they
become low- or no-margin Medicare
beneficiaries after 30 months. From
time to time, Washington threatens
to decrease Medicare's coverage of
dialysis and increase the number of
months that patients must use their
private insurance. Though it's rare
to hear about cutting a government
program, it would allow DaVita to
charge its higher private-insurance
rate for a longer period.
DaVita's long-term results are a
textbook example of how to build
shareholder value. In the past 10
years, shares of DVA have returned
an annualized +24.5%, about twice
the average historical return of the
S&P. The firm already serves about
22% of the U.S. market in an
industry with high barriers to
entry, and the company delivered a
compound annual growth rate of
+14.6% in the past ten years, during
which time operating income grew at
a +19.0% annual clip. That's why
StreetAuthority editor Andy
Obermueller added DVA to his
Government-Driven Investing
Portfolio. But DVA isn't Andy's only
pick this month -- he's also
identified five other stocks poised
to capitalize on existing and
potential changes in various
government programs. To learn the
names of Andy's picks, and to learn
more about Government-Driven
Investing,
please visit this link.
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